Huachuang Securities: The performance of liquor during the dual festivals basically meets pre-festival expectations, with slight reduction in channel inventory and a tight balance between supply and demand

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that the sales of liquor experienced marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday, then gradually slowed down, with an overall expected decline of around 20%, in line with pre-holiday expectations. There are some small highlights in the segmented indicators: First, the turnover of core high-end Moutai and Wuliangye products is relatively good; second, the demand for public banquets remains relatively strong, with positive growth in Jiangsu/Henan/Sichuan, corresponding to good performance in the mid-to-low price range, with some products like Wuliangchun and Honghualang showing double-digit growth; third, the price of Moutai and Wuliangye stabilized after a slight dip, and the inventory pressure situation for local wines has improved. In terms of channel inventory, the willingness to press inventory is low, and overall inventory is slightly reduced after the holiday but remains high, with the purchase and sales volume maintaining relative balance. Channels expect that from Q4 2025 to H1 2026, the focus will be on digesting inventory.

The main viewpoints of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

Overall consumption during the National Day holiday is relatively mild, with good performance in travel-related service consumption.

Residents' travel during the holiday still shows resilience, with growth slowing down due to rainfall compared to the May Day holiday. From October 1 to 4, the nationwide cross-regional flow of people increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with high growth in waterway and highway travel. Retail growth is relatively low, with sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increasing by 3.3% year-on-year in the first four days of the holiday. Food prices remained stable, and service consumption showed differentiation, with travel and entertainment performing well. Box office revenue and ticket prices both fell, with data from Maoyan Professional Edition showing that as of noon on October 7, the box office for the National Day holiday was down 19.2% year-on-year.

The performance of liquor during the two festivals basically meets pre-holiday expectations, with an expected year-on-year decline in sales of 20%.

Sales of liquor experienced marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday, then gradually slowed down, with an overall expected decline of around 20%, in line with pre-holiday expectations. There are some small highlights in the segmented indicators: First, the turnover of core high-end Moutai and Wuliangye products is relatively good; second, the demand for public banquets remains relatively strong, with positive growth in Jiangsu/Henan/Sichuan, corresponding to good performance in the mid-to-low price range, with some products like Wuliangchun and Honghualang showing double-digit growth; third, the price of Moutai and Wuliangye stabilized after a slight dip, and the inventory pressure situation for local wines has improved.

In terms of scenarios, the resilience of public banquets remains strong, and high-end gift sales have improved before the festival. Benefiting from the combined National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, public banquets performed slightly better than expected, with positive growth reported in Jiangsu/Henan/Sichuan, and demand for family banquets has increased; high-end gift sales saw improvement before the festival, with feedback from various regions indicating sales remained flat to down by 20%; there is no significant recovery in the second-tier high-end business group purchases, with general feedback showing a decline of over 30%.

In terms of regions, the differentiation trend between provinces continues, with Henan/Shandong/Sichuan performing slightly better than expected. Based on channel feedback, the double-digit decline in Henan and Shandong was slightly better than expected, with some terminals restocking; Sichuan's sales declined nearly 20%, slightly better than pre-holiday expectations; Hunan reported a decline of over 20%, in line with expectations; Jiangsu reported a decline of over 20%, in line with expectations, while Anhui reported a decline of 20%-30%, slightly below expectations.

In terms of brands, Moutai and Wuliangye performed well, local wines saw double-digit declines, and second-tier high-end brands still face pressure. Based on channel feedback, Moutai's performance varies by region but overall B-end sales turnover is good, with 1935 maintaining positive growth, while Laojiao insists on price stability, with sales volume declining by double digits; Fenjiu reported sales growth in Shanxi; Sujiu Yanghe's sales feedback showed a decline of over 20%, and King's Luck reported a double-digit decline; Huijiu Gujing's sales feedback showed a decline of over 10%, with Yingjia declining by double digits, and Kouzi Jiao is still adjusting; The demand for expansion-type mid-to-high-end brands continues to be affected, with sales feedback for Shede and others declining by over 30%.

Channel inventory is slightly depleting, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and price levels are stable with a slight increase. It is expected that there will still be some downward pressure in Q4.

The willingness to stock up in channels is relatively low. Overall, inventory has slightly decreased after the holiday but remains at a high level, with purchase and sales volumes maintaining relative balance. Channels are expected to focus on inventory digestion from Q4 2025 to H1 2026. During the double festival period, price levels remained stable with a slight increase, with the batch prices of Feitian and Pu'er stable at 1780/810 yuan, while the prices of Jian Nan Chun and Qing Hua 20 remained relatively firm, and the batch prices of Yanghe Tian Zhi Lan and Meng Zhi Lan have rebounded. However, considering subsequent task volumes, year-end off-season capital pressure, and Double Eleven e-commerce subsidies, it is expected that price levels will still face some downward pressure in October and November.

Beverage companies generally reduce their investment in expenses, with policies favoring sub-line products, and the collection progress is 10%+ slower year-on-year.

Firstly, this year, beverage companies generally reduced their investment in expenses during the double festival period. The investment strategy is tilted towards the C-end rather than the channel, and towards sub-line products rather than main products. For example, Wuliangye's policies are mostly focused on 1618, stabilizing the price levels of core main products.

Even with reduced expenses, leading products in segmented price ranges/regions/scenarios are further increasing their market share, such as Feitian and Pu'er maintaining turnover, and Jian Nan Chun, Qing Hua 20, Hong Hua Lang, Bo Fen, and Gu 16 performing outstandingly. Secondly, beverage companies have not significantly increased collection and shipment. Currently, the collection progress for Moutai and Fenjiu is flat year-on-year, and the completion of annual targets is expected to be secure; other progress is generally 10%+ slower than last year, with long-tail brands progressing slowly. Thirdly, the strategies of beverage companies are diverging, with Lao Jiao and Yanghe focusing on destocking and price support, while Wuliangye and King’s Luck focus on ensuring market share.

Investment recommendations: prioritize those who do not kill performance, those with quality clearance, and those undergoing deep transformation.

Currently, the white liquor cycle is accelerating towards the bottom phase. It is recommended to prioritize three types of targets to build a portfolio: firstly, prioritize accumulating shares of Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) and Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), which have significantly reduced performance risks; secondly, select companies that are expected to confirm performance bottoms this year and are likely to achieve new highs driven by market share, recommending Gujing Gongjiu (000596.SZ) and paying attention to King’s Luck (603369.SH); thirdly, focus on deep transformers, with Yanghe Co., Ltd. (002304.SZ) expected to undergo a complete transformation after the new chairman takes office. Although operational reversals are not immediate, the progress and extent of transformation are worth noting. Additionally, pay attention to the innovative model of the bull market variety, Zhenjiu Lidu (06979). Furthermore, it is recommended to layout Wuliangye (000858.SZ) from a dividend yield perspective and closely monitor the clearance progress of Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) while laying out reversal elasticity.

Risk warning

White liquor demand may fall short of expectations, batch prices may decline more than expected, and consumption scenarios may be suppressed