Founder Securities: Focus on the rhythm of metal packaging price negotiations, industrial synergy is expected to drive profit recovery
Fangzheng Securities released a research report indicating that the supply and demand in the metal packaging industry is improving, with the fourth quarter being a price negotiation window period. It is recommended to pay attention to the bargaining process of leading enterprises. After ORG Technology acquired COFCO Packaging, the industry concentration increased, and overall profitability is expected to improve. The demand in the Chinese metal packaging market mainly comes from food and beverages, with the canning rate for beer still having room for improvement, driving demand growth. Risks include downstream demand being lower than expected and fluctuations in raw material prices
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Founder Securities released a research report stating that the metal packaging sector has surged, primarily due to the continuous improvement in the supply-demand landscape of the industry, with clear upward signals from the cyclical bottom. The fourth quarter is typically a window period for industry price negotiations, and it is recommended to closely monitor the bargaining process of leading enterprises. Currently, the demands of leading enterprises are clear, and there is hope for a collective effort in the negotiation process to jointly promote price increases. It is suggested to pay attention to ORG Technology (002701.SZ), Baosteel Packaging (601968.SH), and Shengxing Co., Ltd. (002752.SZ).
Founder Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:
Concentration of supply-side structure, industrial synergy effects gradually emerging
After ORG Technology completed the acquisition of COFCO Packaging, the CR3 of the metal two-piece can industry exceeded 70%, with ORG Technology holding the largest share at approximately 40%. The industry structure is relatively stable, and coupled with the trend of reducing internal competition, the overall demand of the industry has shifted from scale expansion to pursuing steady profit growth, thereby driving the overall profit center upward.
Increase in beer canization rate is expected to drive steady growth in demand
From the perspective of downstream demand, approximately 70% of the demand in China's metal packaging market comes from the food and beverage industry. In comparison to overseas markets, Japan's non-immediate consumption channels (supermarkets, convenience stores) account for over 80%, while China's non-immediate consumption channel accounts for about 50%. The structural difference in channels has led to China's beer canization rate being only over 30%, far lower than Japan (over 80%) and the global average (50%). As the proportion of non-immediate consumption channels for beer increases, there is still significant room for improvement in the canization rate, which will further drive steady growth in the demand for two-piece cans.
Risk Warning: Downstream demand may fall short of expectations, price increases may not materialize as anticipated, fluctuations in raw material prices, etc
