Zhongtai Securities: In September, the M1 growth rate continued to rise, and it is expected that at the end of the quarter, wealth management funds will flow back

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that in September, the new social financing amounted to 3.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of 229.7 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, and the new scale exceeded the consensus expectation of Wind (3.27 trillion yuan). The growth rate of M1 continued to rise in September, while the gap between M2 and M1 continued to narrow. In September, RMB deposits increased by 2.21 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.53 trillion yuan compared to the high base last year. It is expected that under the pressure of assessing demand deposits, the return of funds such as wealth management at the end of the quarter will be more significant. The operating model and investment logic of bank stocks have shifted from "pro-cyclical" to "weak cyclical," with a focus on recommending regional banks and large banks such as Bank of Jiangsu (600919.SH), QLB (601665.SH), HZBANK (600926.SH), and Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH, 01288).

The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:

Social Financing Situation: In September, new social financing amounted to 3.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of 229.7 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, and the new scale exceeded the consensus expectation of Wind (3.27 trillion yuan). The year-on-year growth of new social financing was 8.7%, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to August.

Analysis of Social Financing Structure: Credit remains the main drag, and the support from government bonds has further weakened. Specifically, 1. On-balance sheet credit: In September, new RMB loans amounted to 1.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 366.2 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. 2. Off-balance sheet credit situation: Discounted bank acceptance bills increased by 323.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 192.3 billion yuan; trust loans increased by 6.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6 billion yuan; entrusted loans increased by 28.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11 billion yuan. 3. Bond and equity financing analysis: ① The support from government bonds has further weakened. In September, new financing from government bonds amounted to 1.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 347.1 billion yuan. ② Corporate bond financing increased year-on-year from a low base. With the improvement of the capital market in September, both corporate bond and stock financing amounts increased year-on-year, with new corporate bond financing of 10.5 billion yuan and stock financing of 50 billion yuan in September, with year-on-year changes of +203.1 billion and +37.2 billion respectively.

In September, RMB loans increased by 1.29 trillion yuan, a decrease of 300 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, which is lower than the consensus expectation of Wind (1.39 trillion yuan). The year-on-year growth of credit balance was 6.6%, with a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month.

Analysis of Credit Structure: Year-on-year increases in household medium and long-term loans and corporate short-term loans, with a year-on-year decrease of 471.2 billion yuan in bills. In September, new loans decreased by 300 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, with household short-term loans and medium and long-term loans changing by -127.9 billion and +20 billion respectively year-on-year. Corporate short-term loans and corporate medium and long-term loans changed by +250 billion and -50 billion respectively year-on-year; bills decreased by 471.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Specifically: 1. Corporate Loan Situation: Short-term loans increased, bill interest rates are low, and scale has decreased. Short-term loans continued to improve year-on-year from a low base, while corporate medium and long-term loans decreased year-on-year against the backdrop of a high base last year, reflecting corporate caution regarding future market prospects and profit expectations. In specific data, in September, corporate short-term loans, medium and long-term loans, and net financing of bills were +710 billion, +910 billion, and -402.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of +250 billion, -50 billion, and -471.2 billion respectively. 2. Household Loan Situation: Medium and long-term loans increased slightly, reflecting a slight recovery in the real estate market Looking at the specific data, in September, the short-term loans and medium to long-term loans for residents were +142.1 billion yuan and +250 billion yuan, respectively, changing by -127.9 billion and +20 billion compared to the same period last year. 3. Non-bank credit: decreased by 234.8 billion yuan, a reduction of 35.6 billion compared to the same period last year.

Liquidity and Deposit Situation: 1. In September, the M1 growth rate continued to rise, and the gap between M2 and M1 continued to narrow. In September, M0, M1, and M2 grew by 11.5%, 7.2%, and 8.4% year-on-year, with changes from the previous month of -0.2, +1.2, and -0.4 percentage points, respectively. The difference between M2 and M1 is 1.2%, narrowing by 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. 2. In September, RMB deposits increased by 2.21 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.53 trillion compared to the same period last year due to a high base. Non-bank deposits decreased by 1.97 trillion yuan year-on-year, while household deposits increased by 760 billion yuan year-on-year, and corporate deposits increased by nearly 150 billion yuan year-on-year. It is expected that under the pressure of current deposit assessments, the return of funds such as wealth management at the end of the quarter will be more significant.

Investment Suggestions: 1. The operating model and investment logic of bank stocks have shifted from "pro-cyclical" to "weak cyclical": when the market is strong, bank stocks tend to be weak in the short term; however, during periods of economic stagnation, the high dividends of bank stocks will continue to be attractive, and we remain optimistic about the stability and sustainability of bank stocks; two stock selection logics. 2. Two investment main lines for bank stocks: one is city and rural commercial banks with regional advantages and strong certainty, including regions such as Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu-Chongqing, Shandong, and Fujian, with a focus on recommending Bank of Jiangsu, QLB, HZBANK, YNONGSHANG, Nanjing, Chengdu, and HuNong, among other regional banks. The second is the logic of high dividend stability, with a focus on recommending large banks: the six major banks (such as Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China); as well as joint-stock banks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and CITIC Bank.

Risk Warning: Economic downturn exceeds expectations, economic recovery is less than expected, and data updates are not timely