China Galaxy Securities: In September, excavator domestic and foreign sales were impressive, with strong demand for overseas mining machinery

According to the report released by China Galaxy Securities, the domestic operating rate remains under pressure. Demand from stock updates, machine replacements, agricultural water conservancy, and urban renovation continues to support the sustained growth of small excavator domestic sales. In the future, the advancement of large projects and the opening of mining rights in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are expected to drive a rebound in medium and large excavators. The growth rate of construction in September was relatively good, the decline in tower cranes narrowed, and the certainty of recovery in non-excavators increased. In terms of exports, the export growth of large excavators in September was high, and with the continued upward trend in gold and copper prices, the bank is optimistic about the sustained prosperity of mining machinery. In September, the operating hours of Komatsu excavators in North America and Europe increased rapidly, indicating a clearer trend of recovery in the high-end market. Based on robust domestic demand, the recovery in overseas markets, and strong mining demand, leading manufacturers are recommended.

The main points of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

In September, the growth rates of excavator domestic and foreign sales were +21.5%/+29%

According to association statistics, (1) Excavators: In September, domestic sales of excavators reached 9,249 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; export volume was 10,609 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. From the perspective of domestic sales product structure, small excavators continue to grow rapidly, while medium and large excavators are under pressure. On the export side, the growth rate of large excavator exports in September remained impressive, and small excavators also saw rapid growth, partly due to a relatively low base in the same period last year. (2) Loaders: In September, sales of various types of loaders reached 10,530 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%. Among them, domestic sales were 5,051 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%; export volume was 5,479 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.3%. The electrification rate in September was 24.56%, down 1.68 percentage points month-on-month, and the cumulative electrification rate from January to September was 22.84%, up 0.22 percentage points month-on-month.

Other Products

In August, the growth rate of domestic sales was strong, with marginal improvements in tower crane domestic and foreign sales; the growth rates of forklift domestic and foreign sales were both close to 20%; the decline in the sales of aerial work platforms narrowed. Association data shows the sales growth rates in August: truck cranes overall -4.65%/domestic sales +28.2%/exports -24.9%; crawler cranes overall +43.7%/domestic sales +51.7%/exports +40.2%; truck-mounted cranes overall +7.29%/domestic sales +24.2%/exports -28.9%; tower cranes overall -9.79%/domestic sales -29.1%/exports +27.3%; forklifts overall +19.4%/domestic sales +19.3%/exports +19.6%; aerial work platforms overall -18.7%/domestic sales -40.9%/exports -2.93%.

Operating Rate

Domestic construction remains weak, while recovery in Europe and the United States is evident. Association data shows that the average monthly working hours of major construction machinery products in September was 78.1 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.42%; the monthly operating rate of major products was 55.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.08 percentage points, and a month-on-month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The operating hours of Komatsu excavators show a significant recovery in Europe and North America in September. The year-on-year growth rates of operating hours for Komatsu excavators in North America, Europe, Japan, and Indonesia in September were +10.2%/+7.3%/+2.7%/+0.9%.

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