International oil prices may enter a downward cycle, with significant differentiation in the chemical industry sector

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the operational trajectory of the international crude oil and chemical industry is becoming increasingly clear. Interviews with multiple experts reveal that due to factors such as OPEC+'s continued production increase and the end of the peak season for crude oil consumption, oil prices may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the fourth quarter.

"The current cyclical low characteristics of the chemical industry are evident, as it is in the late stage of recession and will enter the early stage of recovery. It is expected that the quarter-on-quarter improvement in the fourth quarter will be limited, but there will be a slight increase compared to the same period last year, and the differentiation among sub-industries may further intensify," said Song Tao, chief analyst of the chemical industry at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities.

Specifically, sectors such as agrochemicals, fluorochemicals, and electronic chemicals are expected to continue to rise due to policy support and demand growth; while sectors like titanium dioxide and vitamins still face pressure from capacity saturation and insufficient demand support