Shenwan Hongyuan: The initial realization of express delivery price increases in Q3 2025 has been reflected in revenue; pay attention to performance elasticity in Q4
Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report indicating that the express delivery industry has initially realized profit recovery from price increases in the third quarter, and performance in the fourth quarter is expected to be resilient. According to data from the State Post Bureau, the express delivery business volume in September increased by approximately 12% year-on-year, with revenue growing by about 7%. The average revenue per ticket was 7.58 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3%. Express delivery companies such as YTO, STO, and YUNDA Corp. have all seen an increase in average revenue per ticket, reflecting an upward trend in industry pricing
According to the report from Shenwan Hongyuan, based on the September China Express Development Index report from the State Post Bureau, the express business volume in September is expected to grow by about 12% year-on-year, and the express business revenue is expected to grow by about 7% year-on-year. Based on this, the industry average revenue per ticket in September is calculated to be 7.58 yuan per item, a month-on-month increase of 3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.22 yuan. The anti-involution in the express delivery sector continues to advance in September, with national express prices continuously rising and industry unit prices increasing. According to the monthly operational report of express companies, the revenue per ticket for express companies in July was relatively low, generally at a low level for the year. From August to September, under the push of anti-involution, there has been a month-on-month improvement, and in the third quarter, express companies will initially realize the profit recovery brought by price increases, continuing to pay attention to profit elasticity in the fourth quarter.
Shenwan Hongyuan's main viewpoints are as follows:
Event: Express companies release September monthly reports
YTO Express completed a business volume of 2.627 billion items in September, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%, with a revenue per ticket of 2.21 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%; STO Express completed a business volume of 2.187 billion items in September, a year-on-year increase of 9.46%, with a revenue per ticket of 2.12 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.95%; YUNDA Corp. completed a business volume of 2.110 billion items in September, a year-on-year increase of 3.63%, with a revenue per ticket of 2.02 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.50%.
The growth rate of express business volume in September continues the trend of August, with significant month-on-month increases in industry unit prices driven by anti-involution
According to the September China Express Development Index report from the State Post Bureau, the express business volume in September is expected to grow by about 12% year-on-year, and the express business revenue is expected to grow by about 7% year-on-year. Based on this, the industry average revenue per ticket in September is calculated to be 7.58 yuan per item, a month-on-month increase of 3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.22 yuan. The anti-involution in the express delivery sector continues to advance in September, with national express prices continuously rising and industry unit prices increasing.
Express companies see significant month-on-month increases in unit prices, with business volume continuing to grow
From the perspective of month-on-month changes in unit prices: YUNDA (+0.10 yuan) > YTO (+0.06 yuan) = STO (+0.06 yuan), with the unit prices of the Tongda system increasing month-on-month, among which YUNDA's unit price has seen a significant recovery. Business volume continues to grow, with year-on-year growth rates: YTO (+13.6%) > STO (+9.5%) > YUNDA (+3.6%).
It is expected that in the third quarter, express companies will initially realize the profit recovery brought by price increases, with attention to profit elasticity in the fourth quarter
According to the monthly operational report of express companies, the revenue per ticket for express companies in July was relatively low, generally at a low level for the year. From August to September, under the push of anti-involution, there has been a month-on-month improvement, and in the third quarter, express companies will initially realize the profit recovery brought by price increases, continuing to pay attention to profit elasticity in the fourth quarter.
The anti-involution in express delivery has entered a new stage, focusing on the performance of the third quarter reports and peak season pricing
In the short term, attention should be paid to the second price increase situation in grain-producing areas, peak season pricing, and the third quarter reports of express companies. For the new stage of anti-involution, Shenwan Hongyuan has made three assumptions: 1) The price bottom in the industry is eliminated, profits continue to recover, ultimately tending towards public utility, while satisfying the rights of couriers and conducting large-scale dividends. 2) Many regions continue the previous competitive situation, leading to increased industry differentiation. 3) The possibility of higher-dimensional integration and mergers and acquisitions, optimizing the supply side Target Aspects
Recommend the relatively flexible STO (002468.SZ), the continuously improving competitiveness of YTO (600233.SH), and the benefit from the high growth of e-commerce in Southeast Asia and the improving domestic profit expectations of J&T Express (01519), with a focus on ZTO Express (02057) and YUNDA Corp. (002120.SZ).
Risk Warning
Industry price competition exceeds expectations; decline in express delivery demand; significant changes in industry structure; risk of rising labor costs
