In "Major Banks," China Merchants Securities: Advanced manufacturing, AI, new energy, aerospace, and digital infrastructure are expected to be the main beneficiaries of the 14th Five-Year Plan

Bank of China Securities released a report stating that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee set the direction for the 14th Five-Year Plan, seeking incremental growth through structural optimization and high-quality development. The A-share market is expected to transition from policy support to a new starting point for structural upgrades.

The bank noted that the Fourth Plenary Session reviewed and approved the "Suggestions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development." In terms of main content, the meeting's communiqué continued the overall tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," proposing to promote effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, and emphasizing that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it is necessary to "accelerate high-level technological self-reliance and self-improvement, leading the development of new quality productive forces," "build a modern industrial system," "create a strong domestic market, and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern," "further comprehensively deepen reforms," and "adhere to high-quality development." The Chinese economy may continue to shift from incremental expansion to structural optimization, focusing more on innovation-driven development, the real economy, and the construction of a domestic circulation system.

From the perspective of industrial structure, the communiqué proposed "building a modern industrial system," "focusing the efforts of economic development on the real economy," "accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and self-improvement," "leading the development of new quality productive forces," and "cultivating and expanding emerging industries and future industries," clarifying the direction of policy resources for the next stage. Sectors such as advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, new energy, new materials, military industry, aerospace, and digital infrastructure are expected to become the main beneficiaries of the 14th Five-Year Plan.

At the same time, the green transition and energy revolution were mentioned again—"driven by carbon peak and carbon neutrality," "accelerating the construction of a new energy system," indicating that green electricity, energy storage, energy conservation and environmental protection, and carbon management may return to the policy forefront. In the A-share market, the corresponding directions mainly focus on the new energy equipment chain, industrial mother machines, computing power and optical communication, and high-end manufacturing themes.

Bank of China Securities pointed out that the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session also emphasized "building a strong domestic market," "leading new supply with new demand, and creating new demand with new supply," suggesting that the upgrading of consumption and services is expected to become another important policy mainline. Future policies may rely more on improving people's livelihoods, promoting employment, and expanding the middle-income group to form endogenous momentum for domestic demand circulation. Long-term space in directions such as consumption upgrading, healthcare, cultural tourism services, elderly care industry, and educational technology is expected to be reaffirmed. The overlap of regional coordinated development, rural revitalization, and urbanization construction may drive infrastructure construction, building materials, and engineering machinery sectors to experience phased recovery during the stable growth phase.

The communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session reflects the continuity of policies and the certainty of direction, strengthening the in-depth promotion of reform and innovation while stabilizing growth. It is recommended that investors maintain a medium to high position structure strategically, with short-term focus on policy-driven advanced manufacturing, technology hardware, green energy chains, and digital economy directions; and mid-term emphasis on allocating growth mainlines that are expected to benefit from "new quality productive forces" and "domestic demand upgrading," while retaining a certain weight in high-dividend, low-valuation financial, power, and public utility sectors to balance volatility and returns. Overall, the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan era, and the A-share market will usher in a "structural market second half" centered on high-quality development