Guohai Securities: Maintains "Buy" rating on POP MART, overseas market performance continues to exceed the bank's expectations

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guohai Securities released a research report stating that it maintains a "Buy" rating for POP MART (09992) and raises the company's profit forecast. It expects operating revenues of 38.53 billion, 49.50 billion, and 58.55 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and net profits attributable to the parent company of 13.13 billion, 17.03 billion, and 20.19 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 13.54 billion, 17.56 billion, and 20.84 billion yuan, corresponding to adjusted P/E ratios of 21, 16, and 14X. As a pioneer and leader in the trendy toy culture and commercialization, the company operates IP in a multi-dimensional manner and monetizes it based on its advantages across the entire industry chain and platform. The logic of product category expansion continues to be validated, and the overseas market performance consistently exceeds the bank's expectations. Event: On October 21, 2025, the company announced its operating conditions for Q3 2025 (unaudited), with overall revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year in Q3 2025, including a 185%-190% increase in China and a 365%-370% increase overseas. Guohai Securities' main viewpoints are as follows: Overseas revenue continues to grow rapidly, North America accelerates store openings (1) The overseas Asia-Pacific region, Americas, Europe, and others grew by 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% year-on-year, respectively. ① Offline: As of the end of Q3 2025, there were 154 overseas stores (guidance to reach 200 by the end of 2025, with 128 stores reported at the end of H1 2025, indicating an expected opening of 72 stores in H2 2025), including 79/47/28 in Asia-Pacific/Americas/Europe and others, with 26 new stores opened in Q3 2025 (8/9/9 opened in July/August/September), including 7/14/5 in Asia-Pacific/Americas/Europe and others. ② Online: According to fastmoss, the total GMV for the TikTok channel in Q3 2025 was 356 million yuan (up 8.4% quarter-on-quarter), with the top three markets being the United States/Thailand/United Kingdom, accounting for 270 million/34 million/27 million yuan, respectively. (2) The pace of store openings in the United States is accelerating, and the company continues to expand partnerships with bookstores and other channels, launching more locally exclusive products. The company has reached a cooperation agreement with Books-A-Million, the second-largest bookstore chain in the United States, to launch POP MART products in all Books-A-Million stores and on its official website starting in September, accelerating market expansion. In addition, North America recently announced the new Skullpanda co-branded Wednesday hanging card product, with TikTok announcement video views reaching 1.5 million and likes exceeding 137,000, indicating high popularity. The potential of the Star People IP is accelerating, focusing on the performance in the peak season of Q4 2025 (1) In Q3 2025, revenue from offline and online channels in China grew by 130%-135% and 300%-305% year-on-year, respectively. ① Offline: According to the bank's statistics, as of the end of Q3 2025, there were 424 POP MART stores in mainland China (excluding pop-up stores) and 2,371 robots. ② Online: According to Chanmama, the three core Douyin accounts achieved a total GMV of 733 million yuan in Q3 2025 (up 208% year-on-year, up 19% quarter-on-quarter); the average GMV per event was 7.32 million yuan (up 929% year-on-year, up 25% quarter-on-quarter) In September, Douyin had a Super Product Day event, with a GMV of 320 million yuan, setting a new historical monthly high. (2) The launch rhythm of plush/MEGA products has accelerated, and the momentum of the Star People is rapidly increasing. ① In Q3 2025, 20 blind box products were launched, 14 plush series (an increase of 8 year-on-year), and 25 MEGA products (an increase of 5 year-on-year), with a noticeable acceleration in the launch rhythm of plush and MEGA. ② In Q3 2025, the Star People launched 2 plush and 2 blind box series, with an increase of 1 plush product compared to the previous period. The recently launched Halloween new product WHYSOSERIOUS plush series includes two hidden versions, Star People and labubu, with the regular version of Star People having a demand of 9,000 and a premium rate of 120%, second only to the regular version of labubu (with a demand of 13,700 and a premium rate of 225%). The remaining regular versions with the highest demand have a premium rate of 26%, indicating a rapid increase in the momentum of the Star People IP. (3) Q4 is a peak season both domestically and overseas, with a series of holidays starting from October, such as Halloween in October, Double 11 in November domestically + Thanksgiving and Black Friday overseas, and Christmas in December; in Q1 2026, there will be New Year's Day in January and Spring Festival in February. The bank believes that there will be many significant products launched subsequently, with new products expected for important holidays