Understanding the Market | Copper stocks collectively rise as China-U.S. tariff negotiations dominate macro sentiment, with positive expectations driving copper prices close to their peak
Copper stocks collectively rose, influenced by positive expectations regarding China-U.S. tariff negotiations. China Daye Nonferrous Metals rose by 10%, CMOC rose by 7.28%, and both JIANGXI COPPER and ZIJIN MINING rose by 4.29%. China and the U.S. are conducting economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a preliminary consensus. Despite tight copper mine supply and a harsh smelting profit environment, downstream consumption has improved. China Merchants Securities believes that the acceptance of copper prices has increased and expects copper prices to rise next year
According to Zhitong Finance APP, copper stocks collectively rose. As of the time of publication, China Daye Nonferrous Metals (00661) rose by 10% to HKD 0.099; Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) rose by 7.28% to HKD 17.38; Jiangxi Copper (00358) rose by 4.29% to HKD 35.04; Zijin Mining (02899) rose by 4.29% to HKD 35.04.
In terms of news, China and the United States held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Li Chenggang stated that China and the United States have reached a preliminary consensus on the prudent resolution of several important economic and trade issues. Zhengxin Futures released a research report stating that the US-China negotiations have resumed, with slight easing of tariff pressures. The US government remains in a shutdown state, and employment data has not been released. Although Powell still leans dovishly, guiding expectations for interest rate cuts, the window for macro event disturbances has not yet closed. There is currently no news on the resumption of production at the Grasberg copper mine, with more disturbances at the mining end and a harsh smelting profit environment. The path from tight copper mine supply to reduced smelting capacity is not smooth, and downstream consumption is the core variable, with current traditional peak season consumption not matching last year's levels.
CITIC Securities released a research report stating that downstream acceptance of copper prices is gradually increasing, with improved downstream procurement this week. The second 90-day exemption between China and the US is about to end, and US-China tariff negotiations dominate macro sentiment and copper prices. Codelco plans to raise the copper premium for the European market to USD 345/ton in 2026, setting a historical high. This reflects market concerns about tight copper supply next year. We maintain a positive outlook on copper prices in the medium to long term, as the sector's valuation is at historically low levels, and we recommend adjusting to buy
