Understanding the Market | Chinese Property Stocks Drop Collectively, Fitch States the Real Estate Market Has Not Yet Hit Bottom, Expects Sales to Continue Declining in 2026

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, domestic property stocks collectively declined. As of the time of publication, Ronshine China (03301) fell by 5.42% to HKD 0.157; CH OVS G OCEANS (00081) dropped by 5.22% to HKD 2.18; R&F PROPERTIES (02777) decreased by 5% to HKD 0.57; GREENTOWN CHINA (03900) fell by 4.82% to HKD 8.3.

In terms of news, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide was approximately 658 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points compared to January to August. In terms of sales revenue, the sales revenue of newly built commercial housing in the first three quarters was approximately CNY 6.3 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to January to August. Additionally, according to a report by The Paper, Ronshine China's domestic debt restructuring plan, originally scheduled for October, has not yet been confirmed and is expected to extend the relevant bonds again.

Furthermore, on October 29, Lulu Shi, Director of Corporate Ratings for Fitch Ratings in the Asia-Pacific region, pointed out that the Chinese real estate industry has not yet hit bottom, and there is uncertainty in the recovery trend. Although the market briefly stabilized in the first quarter of this year, since April, both the sales revenue and prices of new homes have fallen back into a declining range, with the decline further expanding in June. The month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices has also continued to widen, with first-tier cities not being an exception. Looking ahead to 2026, sales revenue in the real estate market may continue to decline