Shenwan Hongyuan: The anti-involution in the photovoltaic industry continues to advance, with significant recovery in industry prices and profits
Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report pointing out that the core of the photovoltaic supply-side reform lies in the establishment of a joint platform, with 17 major enterprises participating, aimed at addressing the supply-side contradictions in the polysilicon sector. Through mechanisms such as capacity coordination and self-discipline in production cuts, it effectively curbs the disorderly expansion of the industry, promotes prices to return above the cost line, and facilitates the recovery of profitability across the entire industry chain. The advancement of anti-involution has led to a continuous expansion of participating entities, with significant effects on product price recovery
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report stating that the current market's core focus on photovoltaic supply-side reform is on the establishment of a joint platform. This joint platform brings together 17 major enterprises, starting from the most prominent supply-side contradiction in the polysilicon segment, effectively curbing the industry's disorderly expansion through mechanisms such as capacity coordination, quality grading, and self-discipline in production reduction. Since the promotion of "anti-involution," the number of participants has continued to expand, and the effect of product price recovery has been significant. In the third quarter of 2025, the polysilicon industry is expected to start raising prices under the regulatory requirement of "selling not lower than cost," gradually recovering above the comprehensive cost line.
Shenwan Hongyuan's main viewpoints are as follows:
Event: On the evening of October 28, 2025, CCTV2's finance channel specifically reported on the photovoltaic industry in the program "Economic Half Hour": the industrial practice of high-quality development from price competition to innovation in photovoltaics. Zhu Gongshan, chairman of GCL Group, and Zhong Baoshen, chairman of LONGi Green Energy, were interviewed. Zhu Gongshan stated that 17 enterprises have basically signed, and the establishment of the consortium is expected to be completed within the year.
Polysilicon is the core focus of anti-involution, and the establishment of the joint platform will help accelerate the supply-side reform of polysilicon
The current market's core focus on photovoltaic supply-side reform is on the establishment of the joint platform. Zhu Gongshan's interview clarified the industry's determination and progress in anti-involution. As the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain, polysilicon has capital and technology-intensive characteristics, making it a key link in determining the overall chain's cost and profit distribution. The previous severe overcapacity in the industry led to a price war, directly causing the entire industry chain to fall into a "low price - loss" vicious cycle. This joint platform, gathering 17 major enterprises, starts from the most prominent supply-side contradiction in the polysilicon segment, effectively curbing the industry's disorderly expansion through mechanisms such as capacity coordination, quality grading, and self-discipline in production reduction. This collaborative mechanism will accelerate the elimination of backward capacity and promote the rational return of polysilicon prices above the cost line, thereby laying a solid foundation for the profit recovery of the entire industry chain.
Continuous promotion of anti-involution, significant recovery in industry prices and profits
Since the promotion of "anti-involution," the number of participants has continued to expand, and the effect of product price recovery has been significant. In the third quarter of 2025, the polysilicon industry is expected to start raising prices under the regulatory requirement of "selling not lower than cost," gradually recovering above the comprehensive cost line. The price increase has led to a significant recovery in corporate profits, with Daqo Energy achieving a net profit of 73.479 million yuan attributable to shareholders of the listed company in the third quarter of 2025, ending a record of losses for five consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2024 and turning a profit; GCL-Poly's photovoltaic materials business also turned a profit in the third quarter. Under policy guidance, the supply-side reform of the industry is accelerating, and the bottom of the industry chain's prices and profits has become clear.
Regarding the targets
Recommended focus: 1) Core polysilicon enterprises for anti-involution: Tongwei Co., Ltd (600438.SH), Daqo Energy (688303.SH), and GCL-Poly (03800); 2) BC sector with independent α market: Aiko Solar (600732.SH), LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH); 3) As the sector's valuation and profit recover, this round of supply-side reform will spill over to auxiliary material segments, recommended focus: photovoltaic adhesive film company First (603806.SH), glass company FLAT (601865.SH) Risk Warning
Price increases in the industrial chain are below expectations, supply-side reform policies are below expectations, and photovoltaic installations are below expectations
