Guojin Securities: The differentiation in the pharmaceutical industry track continues in Q3 2025, with accelerated release of innovative drugs

According to the information from Zhitong Finance APP, Guojin Securities released a research report stating that the overall revenue/net profit growth rate of pharmaceutical sector companies for Q1-Q3 2025 is -3%/-8%, indicating stable overall performance; the revenue/net profit growth rate for Q3 2025 is -1%/+17%, with the profit side of the sector benefiting from factors such as the overseas licensing of innovative drugs and operational efficiency improvements, leading to a significant boost. The overall revenue/net profit growth rate of representative Pharma companies for Q1-Q3 2025 is -0.7%/+4.5%, with an average net profit margin of approximately 13% (a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points); Biotech companies are still in a rapid growth phase, with representative Biotech companies' cumulative revenue (excluding milestone income) for Q1-Q3 2025 reaching approximately 12.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of about 31%.

The main points of Guojin Securities are as follows:

Pharmaceutical Sector: Overall performance is stable, and profits have been boosted

The pharmaceutical sector companies (based on the Shenwan industry classification, a total of 132 sample companies were selected) have an overall revenue/net profit growth rate of -3%/-8% for Q1-Q3 2025, indicating stable overall performance; the revenue/net profit growth rate for Q3 2025 is -1%/+17%, with the profit side of the sector benefiting from factors such as the overseas licensing of innovative drugs and operational efficiency improvements, leading to a significant boost. The sales expense ratio/management expense growth rates for the sector in Q1-Q3 2025 are -3%/flat, and the growth rates for Q3 2025 are -3%/-2%, indicating overall stability in operating expenses; R&D expenses for Q1-Q3 2025 and Q3 2025 have growth rates of +4% and +5%, respectively, with continuous increases in investment in innovative R&D.

Key Pharma Stocks: Performance continues to diverge, with large enterprises making good progress in innovation transformation

The overall revenue/net profit growth rate of representative Pharma companies (17 selected) for Q1-Q3 2025 is -0.7%/+4.5%, with an average net profit margin of approximately 13% (a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points). Among them, the 6 Pharma companies with revenue scales exceeding 10 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025 have revenue/profit growth rates of -1.9%/+4.4%, with an average net profit margin of approximately 12% (a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points), indicating stable growth; the 11 Pharma companies with annual revenue scales below 10 billion yuan have growth rates of 4.3%/4.7%, with an average net profit margin of approximately 18% (a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points), with overall revenue and profit remaining stable, mainly due to short-term profit pressure on some companies such as Haisco, KELUN PHARMA, and TianKang. Therefore, from the perspective of individual stocks, leading Pharma companies with innovative transformations and high barrier products perform better.

Key Biotech Stocks: Rapid growth, approaching breakeven point

Biotech companies are still in a rapid growth phase, with 11 representative Biotech companies' cumulative revenue (excluding milestone income) for Q1-Q3 2025 reaching approximately 12.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of about 31%. Multiple factors are catalyzing the rapid increase in core single products and overall revenue for Biotech companies. The rapid revenue growth of products benefits from overseas expansion, product efficacy advantages, insurance payment preferences for innovative drugs, and strong moat advantages brought by exclusive indications. Currently, the global competitiveness of domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies' clinical pipelines continues to improve, with insurance policies and commercial insurance accelerating their tilt towards innovative drugs Many domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies are expected to continue entering a performance harvest period, with the breakeven point approaching.

Biological Products: The vaccine and blood products sectors remain in a downward channel, with leading companies in niche segments continuing to show growth trends

The overall revenue/net profit growth rate of representative biological product companies (14 selected) for the first three quarters of 2025 is -25%/-50%, with performance under continued pressure; among them, most companies in the vaccine sector expanded losses in the third quarter, while in the blood products sector, excluding factors such as mergers and acquisitions and subsidiary consolidation, the decline in gross profit margin has led to a decrease in overall endogenous profitability. Looking at the quarters, the overall revenue/net profit growth rate for the sector in 2025Q1 is -41%/-57%, in 2025Q2 is -18%/-45%, and in 2025Q3 is -14%/-45%, with the revenue decline trend slightly easing in the third quarter. From an individual stock perspective, leading companies in niche segments with good competitive landscapes and high barriers continue to show good growth trends from the first half of the year.

Investment Recommendations

The reversal of difficulties in the main line of innovative drugs and the left-side sector remains the biggest investment opportunity in the pharmaceutical sector for 2025-2026. It is recommended to focus on dual/multi-antibody drugs with potential for various cancer types, addressing unmet clinical needs for chronic disease medications, and to continuously pay attention to investment opportunities in ADC, dual/multi-antibody, and small nucleic acid sectors.

Risk Warning

Exchange rate risk; domestic and foreign policy risks; risks of clinical trial progress falling short of expectations; risks of product listing review progress falling short of expectations