NNN REIT (NNN): Assessing Valuation After Quarterly Earnings and Updated 2025 Guidance

NNN REIT (NNN) reported its third-quarter earnings, revealing higher revenue compared to last year, but with a modest decline in net income. The company also lowered its 2025 earnings guidance, which could shape investor expectations going forward.

See our latest analysis for NNN REIT.

After NNN REIT’s updated earnings outlook and revenue growth, the stock’s recent momentum has eased off a bit, with a 30-day share price return of -6.1%. However, looking longer term, total shareholder returns remain positive, up 1.8% over the past year and nearly 30% over five years. This signals that despite recent volatility, patient investors have seen solid gains overall.

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With shares now trading at a discount to analyst targets and strong long-term returns, the key question for investors is whether NNN REIT is undervalued or if the current market price already reflects future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.6% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative estimates NNN REIT’s fair value at $44.54, which is over 10% higher than its last closing price of $39.83. This perspective is shaped by the company’s unique tenant strategy and approach to portfolio growth, setting the stage for a deeper dive into the details behind this valuation.

Accretive acquisitions, strong balance sheet, and proactive portfolio management support durable growth with reduced exposure to economic volatility.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about what’s fueling this bullish price target? There is one forecast underlying the narrative that could surprise you. Hint: it involves robust earnings trajectory and margin expectations. The full narrative unpacks the bold estimates and the pivotal assumptions steering the story. Click in to see what numbers could be driving this fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $44.54 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent tenant risks or increasing competition for acquisitions could pressure earnings reliability and challenge NNN REIT’s ability to sustain its recent growth rates.

Find out about the key risks to this NNN REIT narrative.

Build Your Own NNN REIT Narrative

If you have a different perspective or enjoy digging into the data yourself, you can build a personalized take on NNN REIT in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your NNN REIT research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.