Assessing SIGA Technologies (SIGA) Valuation After Q3 Earnings Stumble and Strong Year-to-Date Growth

SIGA Technologies reported a sharp decline in Q3 2025 earnings, resulting in a net loss, despite strong year-to-date growth. The share price fell nearly 20% to $6.54, with a P/E ratio of 6.3x, significantly lower than industry averages. This raises questions about whether SIGA is undervalued or if the market is factoring in future risks. A DCF analysis suggests a much higher fair value, indicating potential market mispricing. Investors are encouraged to explore opportunities while considering the risks associated with SIGA's reliance on government contracts.

SIGA Technologies (SIGA) just released its third quarter 2025 earnings, showing revenue that dropped sharply from last year and moving into a net loss for the period. Interestingly, results for the first nine months paint a much stronger picture. Both revenue and net income are well above last year’s levels.

See our latest analysis for SIGA Technologies.

The disappointing third quarter numbers came after a string of stronger results earlier in the year, and the share price reacted swiftly, closing at $6.54 after a one-day decline of nearly 20%. Overall, while the year-to-date share price return is still up 4.81%, the one-year total shareholder return is in negative territory at -4.59%, reflecting fading momentum as investors weigh both the recent setback and the much improved long-term fundamentals.

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The sharp drop in quarterly results stands in contrast to solid year-to-date growth. This raises a critical question for investors: Is SIGA Technologies undervalued after this setback, or is the market already factoring in its future prospects?

Price-to-Earnings of 6.3x: Is it justified?

At a last close price of $6.54, SIGA Technologies is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.3x. This places it well below the US Pharmaceuticals industry average of 17.4x. This significant gap suggests the market is assigning a much lower valuation to SIGA’s earnings compared to its industry peers.

The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of a company’s earnings. For a pharmaceutical business like SIGA, which has large swings in earnings from product contracts and government agreements, the P/E can move substantially depending on profit trends and investor confidence in future growth.

Compared to its direct peers, SIGA’s current P/E stands out as particularly low. The peer average is 25.5x and the broader industry is at 17.4x, yet SIGA sits at 6.3x. Even more striking, regression analysis suggests the “fair” ratio for SIGA should be 30.3x. This indicates a sizeable gap to what historic valuation patterns imply the market could move towards if sentiment or growth expectations change.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for SIGA Technologies

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 6.3x (UNDERVALUED)

However, slowing recent momentum and SIGA’s heavy reliance on large government contracts could put continued growth and valuation re-rating at risk.

Find out about the key risks to this SIGA Technologies narrative.

Another View: What Does the DCF Say?

While SIGA Technologies appears undervalued when comparing earnings multiples, the SWS DCF model presents a much bolder statement. According to this approach, SIGA’s fair value sits far above its current share price, suggesting a potentially larger gap than multiples alone reveal. Could the market be missing something, or is there more risk than meets the eye?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

SIGA Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out SIGA Technologies for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 870 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own SIGA Technologies Narrative

If you have your own perspective or want to take a hands-on approach, you can use the same data to craft your own analysis in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding SIGA Technologies.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.