Tariff gloom looms, U.S. container imports in October fell 7.5% year-on-year, approaching the critical threshold of 2 million TEUs

U.S. ports are facing a rare decline in import volumes in recent years, and U.S. trade activity is about to enter a "goods recession" phase.

According to the latest global shipping report released by supply chain technology company Descartes Systems Group, U.S. container imports in October were 2.31 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), a significant year-on-year decline of 7.5% and a 0.1% decrease from September. This is only the second time in the past decade that October has seen a month-on-month decline.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates predict that the inbound container volume in November and December will decline by 14.4% and 17.9% year-on-year, respectively, potentially falling below the critical threshold of 2 million TEU. Supply chain technology company Vizion stated in a blog post:

"Since March 2023, the monthly import volume has fallen below the 2 million TEU threshold for the first time, marking what freight industry experts call a 'goods recession.' This contraction represents a structural shift rather than a temporary fluctuation."

Tariff uncertainty and weak consumer outlook are driving importers to adopt a cautious stance, and this weak trend is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2026. The ongoing evolution of Trump's tariff policy is forcing manufacturers and retailers to reassess their supply chain strategies. The U.S. Supreme Court raised questions about the constitutionality of tariffs last week, further exacerbating market uncertainty.

Fluctuations in Tariff Policy Impact Trade Confidence

The tariff policies implemented after Trump's return to the White House have brought a rollercoaster year for U.S. industries reliant on overseas goods.

Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy at Descartes, stated that U.S. importers are facing "ongoing geopolitical friction and regulatory volatility, with rapid policy changes increasing uncertainty and complexity in the supply chain."

Vincent Clerc, CEO of the world's second-largest container carrier A.P. Moller-Maersk, noted that it is difficult to determine whether the recent weakness in North American demand is due to inventory adjustments following early orders this year or reflects fundamental demand weakness. However, he pointed out that there are still signs of resilience amid unclear trade policies.

The volume of containers handled by U.S. ports has fallen out of the typical range of 2.4 million to 2.6 million TEU that usually marks peaks in trade activity. Data from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates' port tracking indicates that if the nearly 18% decline predicted for December materializes, it will be the lowest monthly level since March 2023.

Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, expects that 2025 will approach last year's record level of 9.6 million TEU, although a slowdown is anticipated in the next two months. Data from the port shows that soybean exports in the first nine months of 2025 decreased by 93% compared to the same period last year.

Retail Inventory Ample but Outlook Cautious

Despite facing trade pressures, retailers' efforts to alleviate tariffs earlier this year may have helped Americans avoid significant disruptions such as shortages and price spikes during the holiday shopping season. Jonathan Gold, Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy at NRF, stated: "Store shelves are well-stocked, and the impact on prices has been minimized, primarily due to measures taken by retailers, such as front-loading imports during periods of lower or delayed tariff increases or absorbing costs themselves "NRF and Hackett Associates' port tracking data indicates a weak performance by the end of the year. If the forecast holds true, the nearly 18% decline in December would be the lowest level since March 2023.

The agency predicts a total container volume of 24.9 million TEUs in 2025, a decrease of 2.3% from last year. The first quarter of 2026 may also see weak year-on-year performance, partly due to goods being shipped early to avoid tariffs.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, stated, "These conditions make market predictions extremely uncertain. Our trade outlook is for a slight decline in import volumes this year compared to 2024, with a more significant drop in the first quarter of 2026."

Port Operators Expect Mild Recovery

Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach in Southern California, stated that while a slowdown is expected in the next two months, the cargo volume at the end of 2025 is anticipated to be close to the record of 9.6 million TEUs set last year.

"We expect moderate growth in cargo volume in 2026," Cordero told reporters last Friday, although he noted that this largely depends on economic conditions, including when and to what extent tariffs are passed on to consumer prices.

Supply chain visualization technology company Vizion pointed out in an analysis released last week that the "new normal" in the freight industry has brought about weak demand. "Since March 2023, monthly import volumes have fallen below the 2 million TEU threshold for the first time, marking what freight industry experts now refer to as a 'goods recession.'"

Cordero noted that categories such as winter clothing, toys, and furniture are declining, while the AI boom is driving growth in electronics and other data center-related products