LIVE MARKETS-Is the deal market ready for its next leg up?

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IS THE DEAL MARKET READY FOR ITS NEXT LEG UP?

The M&A market in 2025 has been dominated by mega-cap deals so large they reshaped entire sectors. Bulge-bracket banks thrived, riding the wave of $10 billion-plus transactions that made headlines and fattened advisory fees.

But analysts at Deutsche Bank see a shift coming. “The story so far has been top-heavy,” they note, pointing out that while total deal counts have held steady, the action has clustered at the very top. Beneath the surface, thousands of smaller deals, the lifeblood of the market, have yet to catch fire.

Deutsche Bank believes the next chapter will be about breadth, not size. The recovery, they argue, is set to broaden down-market, pulling in upper-middle-tier transactions where activity has lagged. And that’s where the opportunity lies.

Evercore (EVR.N) , a global independent investment banking advisory firm, brings deep expertise in complex M&A and strategic transactions, making it a natural winner as mid-market activity accelerates.

Moelis & Company is equally well-positioned to capture this shift with its strong mid-market franchise. Houlihan Lokey will benefit too, but its lean cost structure and smaller average deal size mean less incremental upside compared to peers.

One example? Essilor’s acquisition of Optegra, an AI-powered eye-care platform, a $200 million deal that shows how tech-driven healthcare plays are fueling mid-market momentum.

The timing? Early signs are already here. Dealogic data shows Q4 activity picking up after a sluggish start hampered by the government shutdown. If momentum holds, the deal environment could look very different by year-end—more balanced, more inclusive, and more rewarding for boutiques that thrive outside the mega-cap spotlight.

(Rashika Singh)

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