Hess Midstream (HESM): Valuation Insights Following Strong Q3 Results, New Guidance, and Share Buyback

Hess Midstream just posted its third quarter earnings, showing both higher revenue and net income compared to last year. The company also released fresh guidance for the rest of 2025 and wrapped up a million-dollar share buyback.

See our latest analysis for Hess Midstream.

Backing up its strong quarterly results, Hess Midstream’s share price has climbed 2% over the past month after sliding earlier in the quarter, and momentum now looks steadier. Over the longer term, the company’s total shareholder return is 1.8% over the past year and 177% over five years, suggesting staying power amid broader market shifts.

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With shares still trading at a sizable discount to analyst price targets and robust financials in play, investors may wonder: Is Hess Midstream undervalued at current levels, or has the market already priced in all its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.9% Undervalued

Compared to the most influential narrative’s fair value, Hess Midstream’s last close price is noticeably lower. This has sparked debate about how much upside remains if expectations actually play out. A major theme running through the consensus is the company’s appeal as a stable, high-cash-flow business with pathways to shareholder rewards, even as growth slows.

Conservative financial management and ongoing investments support rising dividends, robust cash flow, and increased shareholder returns even under inflationary pressures. Heavy reliance on Bakken production and Chevron activity, limited diversification, and rising ESG pressures heighten operational, financial, and strategic risks for long-term stability.

Read the complete narrative.

What are the bold forecasts and profit assumptions propping up this valuation? See how cash flows, contract structures, and margin expansion combine to justify future upside. The biggest surprise: which number unlocks most of the narrative’s value?

Result: Fair Value of $37 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained declines in Bakken production or changing priorities from Chevron could quickly challenge the outlook for Hess Midstream's margin and earnings stability.

Find out about the key risks to this Hess Midstream narrative.

Build Your Own Hess Midstream Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dive deeper into the numbers yourself, you can quickly shape your own view and narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Hess Midstream research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.