Morning Trend | AVICHINA's low-level fluctuations remain unchanged, when will the breakthrough window arrive?

AVICHINA closed yesterday at HKD 3.92, stabilizing at this level, while the military industry sector overall remains in a range-bound state, with trading activity falling into a lull. Currently, market volume has sharply contracted, and the defense theme lacks policy and industry catalysts, leading to unclear directions for mainstream capital allocation. Industry news is sparse, and there has been no substantial support from policies, resulting in a noticeable lack of short-term attractiveness. Funds continue to flow out of the sector, with large capital favoring growth themes. There are sporadic low buys in AVICHINA, but the main capital has yet to form a consensus, and there are no signs of a breakout in the short-term trend. On the technical side, the MACD death cross continues, and the moving average suppression effect persists, with intraday rebounds repeatedly facing resistance at the HKD 4.10 pressure level. The weak oscillation has made the market extremely sensitive to intraday capital changes, and a volume-less rebound is unlikely to reverse the structure, posing a risk of a pullback at any time. Investors should pay close attention to military orders dynamics, as public offerings and policy trends will be key variables for the next potential breakout. Trading activity in the bottom range is light, and market defensive sentiment is strong. Whether an effective breakout can be achieved depends more on external macro factors and policy catalysts; chasing high during volume-less fluctuations is inadvisable, and caution should be exercised against potential intraday false rebounds. It is recommended to flexibly adjust defensive strategies based on volume, orders, and announcements