Analyst: Apple's first foldable phone priced at $2399

According to media reports on Tuesday, Fubon Research analysts predict that the price of Apple's first foldable iPhone will reach $2,399, which is at the high end of market expectations.

Despite the ongoing decline in global smartphone demand, foldable devices, especially with Apple's entry, are seen as the only highlight of the market in 2026.

Analyst Arthur Liao expects global smartphone shipments to decline by 4% year-on-year to 1.2 billion units in 2026, with iPhone shipments dropping to 234 million units, a decrease of 4%. In the face of overall industry weakness, high component costs will further squeeze profit margins, but Apple's foldable product is highly anticipated and is expected to become a major catalyst for the industry.

Fubon Research has locked in the pricing of this device at $2,399 based on supply chain analysis and Apple's margin requirements. Despite the high price, the agency is optimistic about the demand outlook, forecasting total sales of 15.4 million foldable iPhones over its lifecycle.

Overall Industry Under Pressure, Rising Costs Intensify Challenges

The smartphone market in 2026 will face multiple pressures. Fubon Research points out that shipments in the Chinese market are expected to be 275 million units, a year-on-year decline of 3%, while iPhone shipments will drop to 234 million units.

The rapid rise in component costs will become a major burden for manufacturers. DRAM contract prices have risen by more than 75% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, and the total cost of the smartphone bill of materials is expected to increase by about 5% to 7% in 2026. This cost pressure will directly affect manufacturers' pricing strategies and profit margins.

Foldable Screens Become the Only Growth Point

Against the backdrop of a sluggish overall market, foldable devices are defined by Fubon Research as the "only highlight" of the smartphone market in 2026. The launch of Apple's first foldable iPhone is seen as an important catalyst for the industry.

Fubon Research believes that the material costs of this device, especially for the panel, hinge, and lightweight components, will drive pricing towards the high end of market expectations. The previously rumored price range was between $2,000 and $2,500, and Fubon's forecast of $2,399 is at the mid-to-high end of this range.

Despite the high pricing, Fubon is optimistic about demand. Based on a 7% penetration rate assumption, the agency expects total sales of the foldable iPhone to reach 15.4 million units over its lifecycle, with 5.4 million units sold in 2026.

In addition to the foldable screen, Apple also plans to launch camera technology upgrades in 2026. Fubon Research expects the iPhone 18 series to adopt variable aperture lenses, which may be exclusively supplied by Largan Precision due to the complexity of the technology. These technological innovations demonstrate that, despite the overall market weakness, Apple is still maintaining product competitiveness and high-end positioning through differentiated features