Nexperia's factory in China is shut down, tightening the global automotive semiconductor supply chain again, with US and Taiwan stocks reacting in advance

• Nexperia's Dongguan automotive chip factory shutdown is spilling over into the global automotive supply chain, with a potential widening of the automotive MCU gap by 2026, forcing global automakers to readjust production schedules.
• Low-end semiconductors priced at only $1–3 expose the structural risks of supply chain vulnerabilities and high dependence on a few suppliers.
• U.S. and Taiwan stock markets for automotive and mature process sectors are experiencing pullbacks; global funds are increasingly risk-averse, enhancing the attractiveness of bonds and gold.

The global automotive and industrial control industries are once again facing "familiar yet unfamiliar" supply chain pressures. Nexperia's automotive low-end semiconductor factory in Dongguan, China, has halted production due to export controls and geopolitical factors, impacting global automotive production lines. Nissan, Japan, and North American factories are reducing output by about 1,200 vehicles per month; Honda's Asian factories have seen a 15–20% decrease in capacity for certain models; Bosch's German factories are reducing component output by 3,500–4,000 sets daily.

This IDM, which holds a significant supply share of global MCUs, driver ICs, and most power semiconductors, is experiencing a lag effect by the end of this year that is rapidly spilling over into the 2026 production forecast, forcing global automakers, component suppliers, and the semiconductor supply chain to revise next year's inventory and capacity models. Several supply chain and research institutions have indicated that the originally expected seasonal shortages have been negated and redefined as a "structural gap."

Nexperia's factory primarily supplies ABS braking systems, power windows, and ECU modules. Although the chip price is only $1–3, the production line interruption still forces vehicle production cuts, highlighting the critical position of low-end chips in the global supply chain. The automotive industry has long adopted a just-in-time manufacturing model, coupled with reliance on a few suppliers, making the production chain highly sensitive to single-point disruptions. The Dutch government briefly took over Nexperia's headquarters in September to prevent core technology leakage; although it was withdrawn last week, the market remains concerned that geopolitical issues and export controls may disrupt supply again.

Analysts warn that the supply interruption of low-end semiconductors could still lead to short-term capacity losses of tens of thousands of vehicles for global automakers. The chip shortage during the pandemic from 2020 to 2022 led to a reduction of over 1 million vehicles; although the scale is smaller now, it still serves as a warning for industries highly dependent on mature processes.

Recent U.S. tariffs on Chinese automotive components and heightened tensions between Japan and China over issues like Taiwan have increased risks in the automotive supply chain. Japan's tourism and retail sectors have cooled due to a decrease in Chinese travelers, while Switzerland's chemical and pharmaceutical industries are under pressure from a more than 20% drop in U.S. exports, indicating that supply chain risks have spread across markets.

In terms of stock market performance, affected by supply chain tensions, U.S. automotive stocks including Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Tesla (TSLA) have all seen pullbacks, especially Tesla and U.S. automakers' electric vehicle production capacities impacted by chip shortages, leading to increased stock price volatility. Taiwan's automotive components and chip stocks such as Novatek, Silergy-KY, Macronix have also faced short-term selling pressure, with the market concerned that chip supply interruptions may extend production lead times, affecting annual performance According to the latest estimates from two international research institutions, if Nexperia cannot restore more than 80% of its production capacity by December, the global supply gap for automotive MCUs may widen to 6-12% in the first and second quarters of 2026, higher than the gap level in 2022 after the pandemic. This ratio is sufficient to impact next year's pricing, inventory, and production strategies in the automotive market. Several Wall Street institutions have downgraded Tesla's delivery forecast for 2026 by 2-4%, and GM and Ford are recalculating their production plans for high-margin models next year.

The response from the Taiwanese supply chain has also been swift. IC design firms generally confirm that "2025 orders are normal, but visibility for 2026 has significantly decreased." Inquiries for automotive NOR Flash, PMIC, and MCUs have become more conservative, with companies like Macronix, Silergy-KY, and Novatek being named by multiple investment banks as "the most closely watched mature process exposures for next year." Several institutions have warned that the real pressure will not appear in 2025, but rather whether there will be dual pressures of inventory reversal and slowing demand in 2026.

Supply chain delays, coupled with geopolitical tensions, have heightened market anxiety. Since November, the U.S. has updated its export control scope, Japan's diplomatic tensions have continued to escalate, China has expanded export reviews of key materials, and Europe's strategic value debate over mature processes has reignited. Mature processes (40-180nm), once seen as a relatively stable field, may become a new focus of global geopolitical technology in 2026.

Market sentiment is reflected in the stock market: over the past two weeks, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen by about 3.8%, with automotive power semiconductors and mature process chip groups declining more than the broader market. The corresponding groups in the Taiwan stock market have also pulled back, attributed by institutions to "next year's production and component inventory models being revised," rather than short-term selling pressure.

The funding landscape is also adjusting in advance. Hedge instruments are once again attracting institutional attention, with U.S. 10-year yields falling back to the 3.9%-4% range, gold ETF holdings reaching a new high for the second half of the year, and the dollar re-establishing itself above 107. Some macro funds believe that if the mature process supply chain continues to be under pressure in the first half of 2026, inflation may resurface due to cost-side factors, delaying the interest rate cut cycle and creating a "secondary inflation" risk. In other words, the supply chain is a macro variable much larger than the market expects.

At this moment, the global semiconductor market is not experiencing a comprehensive shortage like during the pandemic, but is entering a more differentiated risk structure: advanced processes are still expanding rapidly under AI demand, while mature processes are being reassessed as "strategic assets" due to geopolitical factors, high concentration, and expanded single-point risks. Nexperia's shutdown is just the beginning of this story; the real issue is that "the world still lacks an alternative rapid backup system."

The core issue for 2026 is not when production lines will resume, but whether "the supply chain can still accept the concentration of a single country or a single manufacturing site." This is the next stage of risk that Wall Street and policymakers are discussing: mature processes may transition from "low-margin businesses" to "high strategic reliance" key areas within the next two years For investors, this crisis offers not just short-term stock price fluctuations, but a new window to see the redistribution of global manufacturing in advance. The market is still calculating the uncertainties of 2026, but what is certain is: this time, the mature process crisis will affect far more than just car manufacturers; it may impact the entire next round of the global technology manufacturing landscape.