"Large Banks" Research: The cancellation of China-Japan routes poses a direct risk to the profitability of mainland airlines, while TONGCHENGTRAVEL and Trip.com benefit from stable tourism demand

Recently, China has urged its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. Additionally, it has been reported that mainland airlines have received requests to maintain measures to reduce flights to Japan until the end of March next year. HSBC Research published a report indicating that this poses a direct risk to the profitability of mainland airlines. Since the pandemic, routes from China to Japan have been high-profit routes for mainland airlines, and the extension of flight reduction measures covers the most profitable Lunar New Year holiday period.

However, HSBC Research believes that although the number of tourists traveling to Japan has decreased, travel demand has not disappeared. Therefore, travelers are inclined to change their destinations, with TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780.HK) benefiting from the rise in domestic travel demand, while Trip.com-S (09961.HK) benefits from travelers shifting to other foreign destinations.

The bank stated that although the seasonal performance in the third quarter of this year was strong, it expects the three major mainland airline stocks to fall back into losses in the fourth quarter, estimating that the three companies will record a loss of 6 billion yuan. The bank is optimistic about TONGCHENGTRAVEL and Trip.com benefiting from robust travel demand, reiterating a "Reduce" rating for Air China (00753.HK), China Eastern Airlines (00670.HK), and China Southern Airlines (01055.HK), with target prices of 4.3 yuan, 2.6 yuan, and 3.3 yuan, respectively. The bank gives TONGCHENGTRAVEL a "Buy" rating with a target price of 26 yuan; and gives Trip.com (TCOM.US) a "Buy" rating with a target price of 90 USD