Citigroup's research on humanoid robotics companies in China: Everyone is optimistic, and the industry may achieve exponential growth by 2026, at least doubling!

The Citigroup team recently conducted research on the humanoid robot industry chain in China, covering 5 core enterprises. The research results show that the industry has formed a clear consensus: By 2026, global humanoid robot production will enter an exponential growth phase, expected to at least double compared to 2025.

According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk on November 26, Citigroup pointed out in its latest research report that as global leading manufacturers and domestic enterprises accelerate capacity expansion, global humanoid robot production capacity is expected to experience explosive growth in 2026, with revenues of related Chinese supply chain companies expected to more than double. The report believes that the current price correction in the sector provides a good layout window for investors.

Citigroup's research report further analyzes that the core driving force for growth comes from the surge in demand for upstream core components brought about by the expansion of complete machine production capacity, especially in key component areas such as 3D vision, reducers, and lead screws. From complete machine manufacturing to upstream component supply, each link in the industry chain shows a clear growth logic, making humanoid robots one of the highly certain investment tracks in the current technology field.

2026 as the Critical Point for Growth Explosion

This Citigroup research covered key links from 3D vision, complete machine manufacturing to core components, and the interviewed companies generally expressed optimism about the industry's prospects, expecting that by 2026, revenues related to humanoid robots will show exponential growth, or at least double.

Behind this consensus, it reflects that the rhythm of the global humanoid robot industry is significantly accelerating. Leading global manufacturers are actively building supply chain systems and significantly raising capacity targets, while the commercialization process of domestic complete machine enterprises is also steadily advancing, with orders in the thousands gradually being realized. The dual push of domestic and foreign production capacity is driving the demand for upstream core components to the eve of an explosion.

For investors, this means that the humanoid robot industry has shifted from the technology validation stage to the mass production stage, and the industry's leap has entered the countdown. As production capacity is gradually released, each link in the industry chain will successively enter the performance realization cycle.

Clear Growth Path and Defined Value in Core Links

The Citigroup report pointed out that the Chinese humanoid robot industry chain has matured, and in 2026, it will welcome comprehensive scaling and revenue explosion from core components to complete machines.

In the field of 3D vision, Chinese companies have made significant breakthroughs, with their core products successfully entering the recommendation list of international leading manufacturers and occupying about 70% of the market share in specific segments. Since a single humanoid robot requires 4 sets of 3D vision solutions, the value per unit reaches 8,000 yuan, and it is expected that by 2026, related companies' revenues are likely to exceed 100 million to 200 million yuan.

In terms of core components of the execution system, the segments represented by reducers and lead screws perform particularly well. Leading companies have approached the billion yuan level in related revenues in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 20% of total revenue, and have successfully entered the supply chain of mainstream global manufacturers. The number of lead screws required for a single robot is 30-40, driving the value per unit to as high as 20,000 yuan The whole machine manufacturing segment is also progressing rapidly. The cumulative order amount of leading domestic enterprises has reached 800 million yuan by 2025, and it is expected that the shipment volume will leap from around 500 units in 2025 to around 2000 units in 2026, with related business revenue expected to exceed 30% of total revenue, marking a critical stage for the large-scale implementation of whole machines.

Surge in Supply Chain Demand

Research reports indicate that the global humanoid robot industry is forming a pattern of "global leaders + accelerated domestic follow-up," driving the entire industry chain into a period of explosive demand.

Global leading manufacturers are accelerating the construction of supply chains, significantly raising production capacity targets, prompting core component suppliers such as micro ball screw and harmonic reducer to urgently expand capacity. Some companies need to increase supporting capacity to 3000 units per week before the first quarter of 2026, and further expand to 5000 units per week by the end of the year.

At the same time, domestic whole machine enterprises have achieved orders at the thousand-unit level, and it is expected that they will fully enter the ramp-up phase of mass production in 2026, driving simultaneous surges in demand for key components such as 3D vision, motors, and linear actuators. This dual-driven expansion rhythm from both domestic and international markets is pushing upstream core component companies into a prosperous cycle of "synchronized expansion of orders and capacity," making them the core beneficiaries of this round of industrial growth.

Layout Opportunities Amidst Corrections

Citigroup's research report points out that the current correction in the stock prices of related companies is providing important layout opportunities for investors.

From an investment logic perspective, the core competitiveness of whole machine enterprises lies in their commercialization progress and order acquisition capabilities, while upstream component manufacturers demonstrate stronger profit elasticity due to their dual attributes of "high unit value + rigid demand." Especially for companies that have successfully entered the global leading whole machine supply chain, the certainty of growth is even more prominent.

In the long term, the industry has vast growth potential. It is expected that in the next decade, the global humanoid robot market size is likely to exceed 100 billion USD. The Chinese supply chain, with its technological accumulation in core components and mature cost control capabilities, will continue to occupy key positions in the global industrial chain, providing investors with sustained and reliable long-term allocation value.

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