"Gold prices will reach a maximum of $5,000 in 2026, with silver and platinum group metals following suit for a rebound"! Deutsche Bank significantly raises its gold price forecast for next year

Deutsche Bank has sent a strong bullish signal for gold in its latest report.

According to the Wind Trading Desk, Deutsche Bank has significantly raised its expectations, increasing the average price target for 2026 from the previous $4,000/ounce to $4,450/ounce, with an annual price range expected to be $3,950-$4,950/ounce, and the highest price could reach $4,950/ounce, indicating that gold prices may challenge the $5,000 mark.

Deutsche Bank pointed out that the driving force behind this structural bull market has fundamentally changed, with rigid official purchases replacing price-sensitive consumer demand. As emphasized in the report:

The lack of price-sensitive central bank purchases and ETF investment demand is replacing price-sensitive jewelry consumption demand, becoming the dominant force in the gold market. Meanwhile, overall demand growth exceeds supply growth, and this supply-demand mismatch provides solid bottom support for gold prices.

Despite the solid bullish logic, Deutsche Bank also highlighted potential downside risks. If the stock market experiences a deep correction, or if the Federal Reserve's easing in 2026 is less than market expectations (Deutsche Bank predicts a 50 basis point rate cut, lower than the market expectation of 93 basis points), it could have a short-term impact on gold prices. Additionally, if the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends through negotiations, the decline of geopolitical premiums could also bring temporary negative effects.

Central Bank Rigid Demand Dominates, Target Price Aiming for $5,000

The report indicates that the gold upcycle is far from over. The performance of gold in 2025 is described as "an exception among exceptions"—its excess performance relative to the dollar has reached a new high since last year, and the price volatility has recorded the largest since 1980. More importantly, central banks, as inelastic demand entities, are continuously "snatching" supply from elastic demand sectors like jewelry, and this structural change provides solid support for gold prices.

Deutsche Bank stated:

The performance relative to the dollar is comparable to the record set in 2024, and the price range for gold in 2025 is the largest since 1980. Historical data shows that since 1971, there have only been 8 instances where annual gains exceeded the annual volatility range, all of which were price increases. Even if gold's performance relative to the dollar in 2026 is not as outstanding as in 2024-2025, gold prices can still continue to extend from recent strength. This structural support comes from the growth of inelastic demand dominating the market landscape.

From the demand perspective, despite high gold prices, official gold demand in the third quarter significantly rebounded from the second quarter, reaching 220 tons, just slightly below Deutsche Bank's forecast of 239 tons. In real dollar terms, this is the third-highest level of official demand on record.

Deutsche Bank believes that the continued buying by central banks is seen as the ultimate hedge against "black swan tail risks," providing strong confidence backing for precious metals. It expects official demand to rebound to 1,053 tons/year in 2026, and this assumption is crucial for price predictions. If official demand falls back to the average level from 2011-2021, the average gold price in 2026 would drop to $3,850/ounce, rather than the predicted $4,450/ounce Jewelry demand for the entire year of 2025 is expected to be weaker than the levels suggested by price elasticity. Despite an increase in jewelry consumption in the third quarter, even with a 22% seasonal growth in the fourth quarter, overall demand remains weak. Deutsche Bank believes that jewelry demand may continue to be under pressure in 2026.

Central Bank Buying and ETF Resonance

Meanwhile, ETF investors have returned to the market in 2025 after experiencing four years of net outflows. The normalization of ETF inflows indicates that "the support at $3,900 per ounce will remain solid."

Deutsche Bank's analysis states:

2025 marks the return of ETF investors to accumulation after four years of redemptions. ETF demand is also expected to align with price recovery after being significantly below expectations for two consecutive years.

In the short term, ETF gold sell-offs have shown signs of normalization. The rapid decline that began on October 22 is comparable in scale to the April-May phase, but has since fluctuated between slight net buying and net selling. This brief and sharp liquidation indicates that the support level of $3,900 per ounce will hold.

Structural Supply-Demand Imbalance Continues

On the supply side, global gold mining output rose by 72 tons to a record 977 tons in the third quarter, but this increase was easily surpassed by the rise in official and ETF demand (quarter-on-quarter +99 tons).

Deutsche Bank extrapolates the mining output from the first to the third quarter to the entire year, considering the positive seasonal factors in the third and fourth quarters, and expects 2025 output to be 3,693 tons. This indicates that the supply response to gold prices is very mild, consistent with long-term lagging characteristics.

Among them, the disruption at the Grasberg mine has a significant impact. Deutsche Bank states that the Grasberg Block Cave operations will gradually restart in the first half of 2026 after ceasing production in September. PT Freeport Indonesia lowered its expectations in mid-November, with the 2026 gold production guidance set at 900,000 ounces, down from 1.6 million ounces before the incident. The disruption in Grasberg's output alone is enough to offset the production of two major new mines in recent years.

Silver, Platinum, and Palladium All Welcome Bullish Trends

This extreme scarcity in physical supply and demand is not limited to gold. Deutsche Bank observes that years of supply shortages have allowed silver, platinum, and palladium to participate more fully in the strong market for gold.

A noteworthy detail in the report is the surge in leasing rates, "High leasing rates indicate physical scarcity, which affects industrial users, as many prefer to lease rather than own the metal." Based on this, Deutsche Bank expects that the supply-demand balance for silver and platinum will remain in deficit next year, with the silver target price raised to $55 per ounce by 2026.

Specifically:

Silver: The net balance after excluding ETF demand has now become the tightest level on record in terms of supply proportion. Deutsche Bank expects the average silver price in 2026 to be $55.1 per ounce and anticipates that ETF silver holdings will exceed the 2021 peak, reaching 1.116 billion troy ounces by the end of 2026 Deutsche Bank's supply and demand forecast assumes that silver will continue to experience a deficit in 2026.

Platinum: The World Platinum Investment Council expects demand for gold bars and coins to grow by 30% next year. Deutsche Bank predicts that platinum investment demand will rebound to 500,000 ounces in 2026, with a supply-demand deficit accounting for 13% of supply, similar to the past two years.

Palladium: Three factors in the automotive industry support palladium: catalyst manufacturers may moderately shift back from platinum to palladium; the narrative of hybrid vehicles surpassing pure electric vehicles in market share strengthens; the demand for palladium catalysts remains as high as 84%, and the appeal of plug-in hybrid vehicles will extend the duration of PGM catalyst demand longer than expected