Best Carrier for AI Edge? Understand the AI Glasses Industry Chain in One Article

With the penetration of artificial intelligence into terminal devices, AI glasses are rapidly becoming the focus of industry attention due to their lightweight form and intuitive interaction. According to a research report by Tianfeng Securities on the 26th, the large existing user base of glasses and the extremely low AI penetration rate indicate a vast market driven by progressive replacement, bringing clear growth prospects for the related industrial chain.

The growth momentum of the industry has begun to emerge. Recently, technology giants have entered the market one after another. On the 27th, Alibaba launched its first AI glasses powered by its self-developed Qianwen large model, officially entering the consumer AI wearable device market. These glasses deeply integrate services from the Alibaba ecosystem such as Alipay, Taobao, and Amap, achieving smart interactions for payment, navigation, and photography.

Globally, Meta partnered with Ray-Ban to launch smart glasses in September. The market response has been enthusiastic; according to Meta's Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth, the new smart glasses have nearly sold out in offline retail stores, indicating strong consumer demand.

This trend is also supported by data. IDC predicts that global shipments of smart glasses will reach 12.8 million units by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with the Chinese market growing at an astonishing rate of 107%, leading the world. The market is expected to officially enter a new phase of scaled growth in 2026.

Looking ahead, Tianfeng Securities states that the integration of AI and AR technologies will be the core driving force for the industry to enter a period of rapid development. According to predictions from Wellsenn XR, by the time the industry matures, global sales of AI+AR smart glasses are expected to reach 1.4 billion units, with a penetration rate potentially as high as 70%, representing a significant replacement potential for the traditional glasses market worth hundreds of billions.

Market Potential: Vast Space Under Existing Replacement

The report from Tianfeng Securities points out that the core logic of growth in the AI glasses market lies in the replacement of the large existing market. Taking China as an example, the proportion of myopic individuals is close to 50%, with about 700 million potential wearers, and the annual sales of myopia glasses are approximately 150 million pairs and still steadily growing. At the same time, annual sales of sunglasses also remain at a level of hundreds of millions. However, the current penetration rate of AI in the glasses category is still at an extremely low level, providing a huge imaginative space for intelligent upgrades.

The report believes that as AI and AR technologies mature and accelerate their integration after 2030, AI+AR smart glasses will enter a period of rapid development, with the core driving force coming from the progressive replacement of traditional functional glasses (such as myopia glasses and sunglasses).

According to predictions from the information agency Wellsenn XR, during the mature stage of the industry, global sales of AI+AR smart glasses are expected to reach approximately 1.4 billion units, corresponding to a penetration rate of about 70%.

Core Cost: Chips and Optics Dominate Industry Chain Value

Analyzing the cost structure of AI glasses reveals that chips and optics are the highest value segments in the industry chain. Tianfeng Securities' report predicts that the ultimate form of AI glasses will be a fusion of "AR optical display + AI services."

According to Tianfeng Securities' analysis, although the industry chain of AI glasses encompasses multiple segments such as display, structural components, batteries, and sensors, chips and optical modules are the two core elements that determine its cost structure and product form.

The research report points out through case analysis that the cost focus of different forms of AI glasses varies. In Huawei's AR glasses, which focus on display, the combined cost of the optical module and screen accounts for as much as 78%. In contrast, in Xiaomi's AI glasses, which emphasize AI interaction and photography, the cost of the main chip exceeds 25%, making it the most expensive single component. Therefore, the report concludes that under the future trend of "AI + AR" integration, computing chips, optical modules, and screen displays will constitute the three main cost expenditures of AI glasses, becoming the focus of investment in the industry chain.

Technical Path: Iteration Directions of Optics and Display

In the core hardware field, the choice of technology route determines the final form of the product and user experience.

In the optical display field, Tianfeng Securities' report points out that the current mainstream AR glasses in the market mostly adopt the Birdbath solution. This solution is widely used due to its low cost, mature technology, and ability to achieve excellent display effects in conjunction with OLED screens. However, its drawbacks are also significant, including about 25% low light transmittance, thicker modules, limited field of view, and light leakage issues, making it difficult to achieve a daily wear form close to ordinary glasses.

The waveguide solution is regarded as the ideal technological direction to resolve the above contradictions. With its high light transmittance, thin form, and optical machine side placement advantages, it can effectively balance performance, comfort, and appearance. Among various waveguide technologies, geometric waveguides are considered a key development direction for the future due to their ability to provide excellent picture quality with high color accuracy and low color deviation based on reflection principles. However, their complex manufacturing process and low yield lead to high costs, which is currently the main bottleneck for commercial mass production.

Matching the optical module, microdisplays also have two technological evolution paths. The research report analyzes that Micro OLED (silicon-based OLED) is currently mainstream, and its high contrast advantage makes it the preferred choice for most current products However, the shortcomings of Micro OLED in brightness and relatively short lifespan limit its performance in outdoor bright environments.

The highly anticipated Micro LED technology is seen as a more ideal AR solution. It has core advantages of high brightness and long lifespan, better meeting all-weather usage scenarios. Despite its broad prospects, Micro LED is currently constrained by immature manufacturing processes and low yield rates, and it will take time to achieve large-scale production. Tianfeng Securities cites predictive data from Weishen Information Wellsenn XR, indicating that the intensive release of XR new products such as AI glasses will continue to drive demand for micro-displays. It is expected that by 2030, the market size for Micro OLED and Micro LED used in XR will reach USD 9.4 billion and USD 7.6 billion, respectively, showing a strong growth trajectory with dual technology routes running in parallel.

The "Brain" of Computing Power: SoC+MCU as the Ideal Combination

As the "brain" of AI glasses, the choice of computing unit directly affects its performance and battery life. Tianfeng Securities' report analyzes three mainstream chip solutions for AI glasses with cameras:

1. System-level SoC solution: High integration, strong computing power, but high power consumption poses a significant challenge to battery life.
2. MCU-level SoC + external ISP solution: Power consumption is controllable, but computing power is weaker, and functionality is limited.
3. SoC + MCU collaborative solution: Through dynamic scheduling of big and small cores, it ensures full functionality and high performance while also considering low power consumption and long battery life.

Tianfeng Securities believes that although the current cost is the highest, the "SoC + MCU" collaborative solution is expected to become the optimal technical solution for the future due to its best balance between performance and power consumption. With the expansion of the AI glasses market, the entire SoC market will also continue to grow. According to Mordor Intelligence data, the global SoC market size is expected to grow from USD 161.9 billion in 2025 to USD 237.8 billion in 2030.

Industry Chain Puzzle: Key Links such as Storage and Batteries Cannot Be Ignored

In addition to the core chips and optics, the research report also emphasizes the important value of other components in the AI glasses industry In terms of storage, ePOP and eMCP are currently the two main solutions. Among them, ePOP-type storage products are considered very suitable for AI glasses, which have extreme requirements for space and power consumption, due to their lightweight, compact design and low power consumption.

In terms of batteries, high-density steel shell batteries are becoming the key technology to break the "impossible triangle" dilemma of weight, endurance, and computing power in AI glasses. They can provide sufficient energy for stronger computing platforms and higher-definition sensors without significantly increasing volume and weight.

In addition, sensors such as IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit) for spatial positioning and environmental perception, depth cameras, and OEM/ODM manufacturers (such as GoerTek) that provide manufacturing services together form a complete and complex industrial chain map for AI glasses.

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