A Look at Alnylam Pharmaceuticals's Valuation Following Raised Sales Guidance on Vutrisiran Outperformance

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) attracted attention after second-quarter sales of its vutrisiran therapy for transthyretin amyloidosis significantly exceeded expectations, leading the company to raise its guidance for the year.

See our latest analysis for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals.

Momentum has been building steadily for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, with bullish sentiment fueled by the successful rollout of vutrisiran. Over the past year, the stock’s share price has surged 90.5%, while its one-year total shareholder return is an impressive 75.4%. That puts recent short-term volatility in perspective and highlights investors’ confidence in Alnylam’s growth story, especially after their upgraded sales outlook grabbed headlines.

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With Alnylam shares soaring after its upbeat guidance and surging sales, investors now face a crucial question: is this latest rally fully justified, or could there still be room for further upside if future growth beats already high expectations?

Most Popular Narrative: 7.3% Undervalued

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals' most followed valuation narrative places its fair value at $480.17, which is comfortably above the recent close of $445.12. This suggests further upside if major business catalysts play out as projected.

The rapid and robust uptake of AMVUTTRA for ATTR-CM in its first full quarter post-approval, combined with near-universal first-line payer access and minimal patient out-of-pocket costs, indicates a much larger addressable market for Alnylam's RNAi therapies as diagnostics and disease awareness improve. This supports sustained double-digit revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how analysts arrived at this bullish target? Extreme revenue acceleration, transformative margin upgrades, and aggressive market expansion are at the heart of the narrative. But which numbers break the mold? Unpack the assumptions driving this high-stakes valuation in the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $480.17 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, potential pricing pressures and Alnylam's reliance on a single key franchise could pose challenges to its ambitious growth trajectory in the future.

Find out about the key risks to this Alnylam Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Another View: Market Ratios Tell a Different Story

While some estimate Alnylam’s shares to be undervalued, the market’s own price-to-sales ratio tells a different tale. Alnylam trades at 18.3x sales, which is higher than the US Biotechs industry average of 12.3x, above its fair ratio of 15.8x, and greater than the peer average of just 9.5x. This premium means the market is expecting extraordinary growth, so what might happen if these high hopes waver?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to form your own conclusions, you can easily dive into the data and craft a narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Alnylam Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.