<div id="readability-page-1">Progress Software CEO Yogesh Gupta Progress Software Progress Software stock has fallen 36% in 2025.  This result seems to violate one of my basic rules of investing: The stock price of companies that beat expectations and raise guidance each quarter, usually rise.  Despite dutifully beating and raising in each of its 2025 quarterly reports, according to MarketBeat , Progress’s shares are way down. This raises a question:  In my view, the bear case for $PGRS is more compelling than the bull one.  Progress is a 44-year old Burlington, Mass.-based provider of business software whose growth strategy hinges on acquisitions. Progress acquires mostly small database and other business software companies whose customers are unwilling to incur the switching costs of moving their business onto more modem platforms.  The company has 3,000 employees and 86,000 customers and generated about $250 million in third quarter revenue with an average revenue per customer of $3,000. Customers are small businesses – such as accounting firms, law firms, pharmacies, and doctor’s offices – in need of help with collections and business information, Progress CEO Yogesh Gupta told me in a November 10 interview.  MORE FOR YOU Perhaps the biggest uncertainty for the company’s future is a lawsuit. More specifically, in May 2023 a Russian hacker group exploited a breach in Progress’s MOVEit’s file transfer app used by its customer’s supply chains – potentially exposing the personal data of 95.8 million individuals across 2,773 organizations, according to Emsisoft .  The financial liability of the legal proceedings – which alleges negligence, breach of contract, unjust enrichment, and violation of local consumer protection statutes, noted a July 2025 legal ruling -- could cost Progress an uncertain amount of cash – ranging from millions of dollars to over $500 million.  The bull case hinges on Progress’s high margins, low valuation, and recurring revenue in enterprise software. More specifically, the company’s stock is valued at a low 8x earnings with 40% non-generally accepted accounting principles operating margins and 47% annual recurring revenue growth.  If the MOVEit litigation settles for a manageable amount – for example, Progress has already settled one case for $2.8 million -- the legal overhang would lift.  Meanwhile, the company’s operations could improve. Progress’s integration of ShareFile – which the company acquired in September 2024 for $875 million – is proceeding ahead of schedule; the company plans to reduce debt by $160 million this year, and its new AI capabilities could increase pricing power and customers wins, noted a company release.  Progress’s ability to slough off investor pessimism may hinge on whether the company can grow much faster than expected.  The company now provides value to customers in the form of content-centric collaboration. “Our customers are sharing information with other parts of the external world and we keep their information safe, secure, and reliable and we track how documents change,” Gupta said.  Progress gives its customers the benefit of AI without charging a high price point. “We enable clients to use generative AI to suggest which marketing documents to send to which clients,&#34; Gupta explained. Generative AI “helps customers do their jobs better so they can get more done. They are happy and we have a customer satisfaction rate of 93% to 94%.”  Progress uses AI to help small businesses boost productivity. “We can help the same number of lawyers get a few more tax filings done,” he said.  “That’s our value proposition. We help the largest do-it-yourself retailer use AI to find out what is going on in the warehouse and what to recommend to the customer. For technical support, within 30 days we helped a company with 300,000 customers to handle 33% of requests automatically. Customers are happy and they get faster response. If they have a question at 2 AM, it will be answered promptly,” he added.  AI also helps Progress Software customers to bring out new products faster. “Vibe coding is great for prototyping,” Gupta said. “We can help companies get something done in less than three months that used to take three years.&#34;  Progress argues when businesses are dependent on complex software, the cost of switching to newly-minted AI generated software is very high. “It is complex to add new capabilities to an existing product with 40 or 50 capabilities,” Gupta argued.  &#34;We make sure the new features connect securely to the existing product. Our chief AI officer created a new development methodology to make this work. If you don’t learn AI, you won’t be as good as you could be,” he concluded.  Some 12% of Progress shares are sold short. Here are the key reasons short sellers could be enriched as $PGRS falls further:  There is vast uncertainty about how much Progress will pay to resolve the MOVEit litigation. Below are three scenarios:  Wall Street seems to be optimistic about Progress stock. Four Wall Street analysts set an average price target of $66.25 – representing 61% upside, noted TipRanks.</div>

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<p>Progress Software's stock fell 36% in 2025 despite beating expectations and raising guidance. The decline is attributed to a lawsuit over a data breach, which could cost up to $500 million. The company has high margins and recurring revenue growth, but investor pessimism persists. Progress uses AI to enhance productivity and customer satisfaction, offering value without high costs. The stock is valued at 8x earnings, with potential for improvement if legal issues are resolved.</p>

Progress Software Stock Down 36%. Learn Why, If AI Makes $PGRS A Buy