By Bill Peters
'Just the journey to getting to Black Friday has been the worst year in my 20-plus years of business, even worse than COVID,' one small-business owner says amid tariff fallout
Shoppers walk past a Black Friday sale banner at a store in a mall in Arlington, Va., on Nov. 29, 2024.
As businesses dive into Black Friday following a year upended by tariffs, the rule seems to be that the bigger you are, the more optimistic you feel.
The largest retailers have projected calm and confidence, a sense that tariffs are under control in quarterly earnings calls this month - and a sense that they have what they need on their shelves to make the holiday season work for a more budget-conscious consumer. For many smaller businesses, however, the stress has been more pronounced.
&#34;We have something for every budget, with deals across a wide range of price points,&#34; Corie Barry, chief executive at Best Buy Co. (BBY), said on the electronics retailer's earnings call on Tuesday.
But at The Queen's Treasures, a doll designer in Ticonderoga, N.Y., that manufactures those items in China, sales so far for this month are down 50% compared with last year, according to Joann Cartiglia, the company's owner and founder, whose business struggles with staying stocked up.
As the U.S. raises tariffs or otherwise makes tough-to-predict changes to them this year, she can't afford to make and ship in a lot of what she sells, she said. Many of the dolls and doll furniture listed on The Queen's Treasures' website contain the notices like &#34;SORRY, Tariff Pricing!&#34; or &#34;LIMITED QTY!&#34; or &#34;SOLD OUT-ETA SUBJECT TO TARIFFS!&#34;
&#34;I am out of stock on so many of my products that I could not afford to manufacture and add an extra 30% on,&#34; she said. &#34;So that is a desperate situation.&#34;
&#34;I am not going to be running sales on anything I know I'm going to be running out of, which is a lot of my stuff,&#34; she continued.
Cartiglia said tariffs had upended her retirement plans and left her with a business she couldn't sell. She said that the focus on the stock market's reaction to trade and the broader economy took the focus away from the potential impact on the markets if smaller businesses continue to struggle.
The holiday-season divide has emerged as the National Retail Federation expects this year's holiday-season sales to crack the $1 trillion barrier. But the industry group noted that consumers were watching their spending more closely and said that tariffs had pushed prices higher. Adobe has said online deals might be a little less generous than last year, as tariffs alter buying patterns. The firm expects U.S. customers to spend a record $11.7 billion online for Black Friday, marking an 8.3% increase year over year.
Still, as bigger questions over affordability force shoppers to hunt for discounts more aggressively this year, Bain &amp; Co. said 9% of U.S. holiday sales could take place between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, when the discounts tend to be steeper. The 9% figure would be the highest seasonal share recorded by the firm since it started tracking the data.
Black Friday this year also arrives after a government shutdown that disrupted SNAP benefits for low-income Americans before ending earlier this month. Aditya Kaushik, an analyst at Coresight Research, said the firm's own holiday-shopping data showed that in November, there hadn't been much growth in shopping trends.
&#34;But recently we saw there was a jump in the number of shoppers who are shopping right now for the holiday season,&#34; he said last week. &#34;It came after the federal government shutdown got resolution, and that could also lead to a good Black Friday event this year.&#34;
Analysts have said the current cost-of-living squeeze favors bigger retailers. Those larger chains have more resources to keep their stores stocked and prices lower.
Among other large companies, Walmart Inc. (WMT) raised its full-year forecast and said the holiday shopping season was &#34;off to a pretty good start.&#34; Ernie Herrman, the chief executive of TJX Cos. (TJX), which runs TJ Maxx and Marshalls, said, &#34;We like the way we're positioned in November already.&#34;
TJX and Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) also boosted their financial forecasts for the full year. Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) on Tuesday said &#34;November traffic and sales remain robust,&#34; but noted customers were waiting longer for better deals.
&#34;We feel good about the fourth quarter heading into a big week,&#34; Fran Horowitz, the chief executive at clothing chain Abercrombie &amp; Fitch Co. (ANF), said on the company's earnings call on Tuesday.  She added that she was &#34;excited for seeing all the excitement out there for Black Friday and ready to compete.&#34;
But for some smaller businesses, getting stocked up heading into Black Friday has been difficult enough. Now, some are questioning whether they can sell what they have, amid concerns about a softening economy.
&#34;Just the journey to getting to Black Friday has been the worst year in my 20-plus years of business, even worse than COVID,&#34; said Jared Hendricks, the founder and CEO of Village Lighting Co., a company in West Valley City, Utah, that sells holiday lighting and decor.
&#34;The logistics cost increases, the issues with delayed shipments and factories stopping and starting productions, and the yo-yo of policy that's changed from one day to the next has made it extremely difficult to plan,&#34; he added.
Hendricks said the company had to borrow money to cover the costs of those import taxes. He said he understood the logic behind the tariffs - which the government has argued could help bring back manufacturing, reframe trade policy and bring in revenue - and said he hoped the ongoing trade talks were successful. But he said that as the dust settles on those renegotiations, he hoped more attention would be given to businesses that couldn't easily make things in the U.S.
Village Lighting Co., which has 11 full-time employees and five seasonal ones, makes its products in China and elsewhere in Asia. Hendricks said there have been shortages in the last few weeks due to late shipments, after several containers were delayed due to the U.S.' threat of a tariff hike on China last month that never materialized.
For instance, a popular rolling tree stand had been sold out for a month, he said.
&#34;People like to buy those in October and November, to put up their tree in December,&#34; he said. &#34;And we didn't have them here because they were sitting there in limbo waiting for a decision on tariffs.&#34;
Other smaller businesses that didn't express outright anxiety are at least doing some things differently. Lisa Adams, chief revenue officer at Hazelwood, Mo.-based TeeTurtle, which makes T-shirts, toys and games, said the company had to be far more precise in how it planned promotions.
That meant leaning on higher discounts on items that weren't hit as hard by tariffs, like T-shirts, or items that were already in the U.S., she said. Newer items coming in from China had to be discounted more conservatively to make up for the higher import costs, she said.
&#34;When costs rise, it directly affects how deeply we can discountduring major shopping windows like Black Friday,&#34; she said.
Quaid Walker, the chief executive and co-founder of Los Angeles-based Bezel, an online marketplace for luxury watches, said that as tariffs leave costs, watch prices and availability in flux - and raise the risk of confusion or canceled sales as sellers try to manage it all - he'd tried to staff up more to help connect buyers with the right sellers to complete transactions.
&#34;I've just staffed up our team to make sure that we're not just prepared for the massive increase in volume in the holidays, but we're also prepared for maybe doing more hand-holding than ever in the holidays to get salesover the line,&#34; he said.
Some smaller businesses that felt upbeat about the state of consumer demand still had questions.
&#34;Not to brag, but we've been doing real well,&#34; said Arin Schultz, chief growth officer of Naturepedic, which makes mattresses and bedding and is based in Chagrin Falls, Ohio. &#34;But I would imagine after [the] first quarter next year, after Black Friday ends, there's a lot of uncertainty if those tariffs are still there.&#34;
&#34;What is the first half of 2026 going to look like?&#34; he said. &#34;Are people going to just spend like drunken sailors for this holiday season, and then next year it's like, 'Well, we did all our shopping then. We're just going to wait?'&#34;
-Bill Peters
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-28-25 1154ET

<p>Large retailers project confidence this holiday season, with resources to manage tariffs and stock shelves, while smaller businesses struggle with tariff-induced costs and stock shortages. The National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to exceed $1 trillion, but consumers are cautious. Analysts suggest larger retailers benefit from the current economic climate, while smaller businesses face challenges. The recent government shutdown resolution may boost Black Friday sales, with significant spending expected online.</p>

- The article discusses the contrasting experiences of large and small retailers during the Black Friday shopping season, highlighting the challenges faced by smaller businesses due to tariffs and supply chain issues.  
- While major retailers express optimism and project strong sales, smaller businesses report significant declines in sales and difficulties in stocking products, with some owners describing the year as their worst in decades.  
- The article emphasizes the impact of tariffs on pricing and inventory, suggesting that the current economic climate favors larger retailers who can better absorb costs and maintain stock levels.

Big retailers project calm and confidence this holiday season, while smaller businesses scramble