Regaining major clients is in sight! Intel surged 10%, and Ming-Chi Kuo expects Apple to deliver M series chips in 2027

A post from Apple's "prophet" has added fuel to Intel's ongoing rebound this week, with the stock price achieving its best single-day performance in over two months.

On Friday, the 28th, during the early trading session of U.S. stocks, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicted on social media platform X that Intel would begin delivering Apple's low-end M series chips as early as 2027. This would be a significant boost for Intel, marking its return to chip supply contracts after losing Apple's Mac computer processor orders for many years.

After Kuo's post, Intel's stock price accelerated its rise during the trading session, with gains expanding to over 10% before closing up about 10.2%, erasing losses from November, reaching its highest closing level since October 29, and achieving the largest single-day gain since September 18. By the close on Friday, Intel had risen for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of over 20.6% over five days.

Kuo clearly stated on social media platform X that, according to his latest industry survey, the likelihood of Intel becoming a supplier of advanced processes for Apple has "significantly increased recently." He revealed that Apple plans to use Intel's 18A advanced process to produce its lowest-end M series processors as early as the second to third quarter of 2027. These chips are primarily used in the MacBook Air and iPad Pro, with a combined expected shipment of about 20 million units in 2025.

For Intel, securing advanced process orders from Apple, a top-tier client, is far more significant than just direct revenue and profit contributions. Kuo pointed out that although Intel will still be unable to compete directly with TSMC in the coming years, this indicates that "the most difficult period for its foundry business may soon be over." For Apple, this move demonstrates support for the Trump administration's "Made in America" policy and meets the need for supply chain diversification management.

There have long been market rumors about Intel potentially becoming Apple's foundry, but visibility has remained low. According to reports from September this year, Intel was seeking investment from Apple as part of its revitalization plan. Now, Kuo's prediction provides the most specific timeline and technical details for this collaboration.

Substantial Progress in Intel and Apple's Cooperation

In his post on Friday, Kuo detailed the latest progress in the cooperation between the two parties. He stated that Apple had previously signed a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) with Intel and received the advanced process 18AP PDK 0.9.1GA version. Currently, the progress of key analog and research projects (such as PPA) is in line with expectations, and Apple is now waiting for Intel to release PDK 1.0/1.1 versions, expected in the first quarter of 2026.

Apple plans to adopt Intel's 18AP advanced process, which is the earliest available sub-2nm advanced process in North America. However, the actual timeline still depends on the development progress after receiving PDK 1.0/1.1. It is worth noting that while Intel will be responsible for manufacturing, these M series chips will still be designed by Apple and use Arm architecture, rather than Intel's traditional x86 architecture Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that the shipment volume of the lowest-end M series chips in 2026 and 2027 will be between 15 million and 20 million units. Due to the potential impact of new, more affordable MacBook models adopting iPhone-level processors on the shipment volume of the MacBook Air in 2026, the overall order scale is relatively small.

The Significance of Regaining Apple Orders

For Intel, winning Apple’s advanced process orders is symbolically more significant than its actual business contribution. Kuo emphasizes that, in absolute terms, the order volume for the lowest-end M series processors is relatively small and has almost no substantial impact on TSMC's fundamentals or its technological leadership in the coming years. However, this order indicates that the worst period for Intel's foundry services business may soon be over.

Looking ahead, Intel's 14A process and subsequent nodes may receive more orders from Apple and other top-tier clients, thereby reversing its long-term outlook. Under the leadership of the newly appointed CEO Pat Gelsinger in March this year, Intel is committed to revitalizing the company and has received support from the U.S. federal government.

On August 22 this year, the Trump administration confirmed an agreement with Intel, where the government will invest $8.9 billion in Intel's common stock, acquiring about 10% of the company. Upon successful completion of the transaction, the U.S. government will become one of Intel's "largest shareholders." In addition to the $2.2 billion federal subsidy Intel has previously received, the total investment from the U.S. government in Intel amounts to $11.1 billion.

Intel was once the dominant chip manufacturer but has now lost its long-term technological advantage and ceded market share to competitors like AMD. The company has also failed to seize the opportunity presented by the surge in sales of artificial intelligence (AI) devices. Although Intel continues to face challenges, since the U.S. government announced its equity investment in August, investors have grown increasingly optimistic about Intel's prospects, with the stock price having risen nearly 64%.

Supply Chain Diversification and Political Considerations

For Apple, introducing Intel as a second supplier has dual significance. Kuo points out that this first demonstrates strong support for the "Made in America" policy vigorously promoted by the Trump administration. Secondly, although Apple will continue to rely heavily on TSMC's advanced processes in the foreseeable future, it still needs to ensure a second source of supply to meet supply chain management requirements.

Since 2020, Apple has phased out Intel processors in its Mac computers, transitioning to its self-developed M series chips, which continue to provide industry-leading performance per watt. Apple previously announced that macOS Tahoe will be the last major version to support Intel Macs based on the x86 architecture. TSMC will continue to supply the vast majority of M series chips to Apple, including the more powerful Pro, Max, and Ultra versions Apple has been seeking to showcase its significant investments in the United States. At a White House event last August, Apple announced plans to invest $600 billion in domestic projects over four years, up from a previously committed $500 billion. Apple CEO Tim Cook stated to CNBC at the time that these investments would encourage other companies to increase production capacity in the U.S., creating a "domino effect." He mentioned that competition in the chip foundry industry is beneficial, saying, "We welcome Intel's revival."

Government Push and Transformation Challenges Coexist

The backdrop for Intel regaining Apple orders is the Trump administration's commitment to reviving the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry. Intel is seen as a key player in revitalizing domestic production, which is a priority for the White House. In addition to Apple, Intel is also seeking investments and partnerships with other companies.

Before the U.S. government confirmed its investment in Intel and acquired a 10% stake in August this year, Japan's SoftBank had announced a $2 billion investment in Intel that same month. A month later, Intel announced an agreement with NVIDIA to receive a $5 billion investment, with both parties planning to collaborate in the personal computer (PC) and data center chip sectors.

Under former CEO Pat Gelsinger, Intel began transforming into a chip foundry, manufacturing semiconductors for external customers. However, the company has struggled to secure enough customers to support its factory expansion plans. Current CEO Chen Lifeng has continued the foundry strategy but with more caution. He stated last July that Intel would only launch its new cutting-edge production technology, named 14A, if customers made commitments.

Despite receiving government financial support, Intel still faces significant challenges. The company has laid off employees and postponed factory expansion plans to cope with deteriorating financial conditions. Its sales and market value currently represent only a small fraction of Intel's potential. However, Friday's surge in stock prices indicates that the market has expectations for Intel to turn around with the help of Apple orders