Power Going Abroad -- Gas Turbines and HRSG

Readers who follow us should know that we were among the first in the country to write about the power shortage. Recently, we have been sorting out the logic of power sources and the upgrading of transformer technology. This article will discuss the currently popular sector - gas turbines. This morning, Jereh Group hit the daily limit, and according to public information, starting from May 2025, Jereh has consecutively announced two orders worth 100 million USD, along with leasing contracts, bringing the total order volume to 250-300 million USD (approximately 2 billion RMB). The clients are top technology giants in North America, and there is potential for incremental orders under future expansion plans, which is likely the reason for the market's optimism.

What is a Gas Turbine

A gas turbine is a high-speed rotating blade power machine that uses continuously flowing gas as the working medium to convert thermal energy into mechanical work. As the "crown jewel" of the equipment manufacturing industry, its technological level directly reflects a country's industrial strength and occupies a core position in the energy supply system. Gas turbine power generation has become one of the mainstream power generation methods due to its flexibility, efficiency, cleanliness, and reliability. Its core advantages are reflected in four aspects: outstanding environmental performance, using liquid or gas fuels with complete combustion and no ash emissions, and exhaust can be purified through water or steam injection processes; high operational flexibility, with a cold standby to full load switch time of less than 20 minutes, rapid start-stop response, and high success rate, suitable for peak shaving and power supply scenarios; high space utilization, eliminating the need for separate coal storage yards and coal transportation systems, significantly saving land area; and excellent power generation quality, with the unit working solely through rotational motion, fast electrical response, and minimal output power fluctuations. In terms of classification, gas turbines can be divided into E, F, H/J grades based on turbine inlet temperature, with H/J grade products currently being the mainstream in the market, reaching turbine inlet temperatures of 1600℃; by power scale, they can be categorized into micro, small, medium, and large types, with the first three classified as light gas turbines, while large gas turbines are listed separately as heavy types.

According to data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM), the three major manufacturers, GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, occupy two-thirds of the global gas turbine market for gas-fired power plants under construction, with GE Vernova leading the world with nearly 55GW of installed gas turbine capacity. In the Asian market, GEM data shows that more than two-thirds of GE Vernova's gas power generation capacity under construction is concentrated in Asia, where its market share in the gas turbine sector reaches 38%, followed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries with a 17% share, and Siemens Energy in third place with a 16% share.

Advantages of Gas Turbines

Compared to Nuclear Power: Construction Cycle More Aligned with Data Center Demand

The World Nuclear Association (WNA) released the "2024 World Nuclear Power Plant Operational Performance Report" in August 2024, showing that the average construction cycle for nuclear reactors that achieved power supply in 2023 was 115 months (approximately 9 to 10 years). This figure not only exceeds the 88 months in 2021 and 89 months in 2022 but also significantly surpasses the average level in recent years In stark contrast is the construction efficiency of gas power plants. Statistics from Guojin Digital Future Laboratory indicate that gas power plants with a capacity of 500MW or more that commenced operation in the United States after 2020 have construction cycles controlled within 4 years, with most projects even completed within 3 years. Currently, the construction cycle for AI data centers typically ranges from 2 to 4 years, and the construction progress of gas power plants aligns closely with that of data centers, while their power generation capacity can fully meet the electricity demands of data centers.

It is worth mentioning that the construction technology for gas power plants in the United States is already quite mature. The mainstream new generation F-class, H-class, and J-class gas turbines have been in large-scale construction since 2010, and the relevant technologies have completed commercial verification, eliminating the need for a lengthy technology incubation period, allowing for rapid practical application.

Comparing with Photovoltaics and Wind Power: Faster Approval and More Stable Supply

Research from Berkeley Lab indicates that gas power plants, due to their advantages of small land area, short construction cycles, and clean efficiency, have seen a significant improvement in grid connection approval efficiency in the United States in recent years. In 2023, the average waiting time for new gas power project applications for grid connection permits has dropped to around 10 months. In contrast, the approval process for photovoltaic and wind power projects is relatively cumbersome, with an average waiting time of over 30 months, highlighting the significant advantage of gas power plants in construction response speed.

From the perspective of supply stability, the power generation of photovoltaics and wind power is greatly affected by natural conditions, exhibiting significant seasonal and cyclical fluctuations, making it difficult to achieve continuous and stable power supply. However, AI data centers have extremely high commercial value and strict requirements for power supply reliability, needing uninterrupted stable power support 24/7 throughout the year. Gas turbine power generation is not restricted by natural environmental factors and can continuously output stable electricity, better aligning with the operational needs of data centers.

Comparing with Diesel Generator Power: Comprehensive Performance Advantages

Compared to diesel generator power, gas turbine power generation performs better on multiple core performance indicators. In terms of startup speed, gas turbines can go from startup to full-load operation in just 20 minutes, and if in a hot start state, the response speed is even faster, capable of quickly supplying power within 1 minute to effectively meet the sudden electricity demands of data centers.

In terms of deployment flexibility, under the same power conditions, gas turbines are characterized by their small size, light weight, and minimal land area, making them easier to layout and install according to the site conditions of data centers. In terms of operation and maintenance and environmental protection, gas turbines have a relatively simple structure, fewer moving parts, higher operational reliability, and daily maintenance costs lower than those of diesel generators; at the same time, their operation is convenient, allowing for unattended remote monitoring, reduced maintenance workload, controllable operating costs, and lower carbon emissions, aligning with green development needs.

Cost Advantages

The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is a core indicator for measuring the comprehensive economic benefits of power generation projects. It is calculated as the ratio of the present value of costs over the project lifecycle to the present value of electricity generated over the lifecycle, typically expressed in megawatt-hours (MWh, 1MWh=1000KWh), providing a clear reflection of the cost differences among various power generation methods According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for gas-fired power generation projects in the United States was $45 per megawatt-hour in 2020, which is relatively low among various power generation methods. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) further predicts that by 2028, the average LCOE for gas-fired power generation in the U.S. will decrease to $42.72/MWh, showing a steady decline from 2020, providing strong support for its application in AI data centers due to its outstanding economic efficiency.

HRSG - Heat Recovery Steam Generator

HRSG stands for Heat Recovery Steam Generator, which is the core equipment in gas-steam combined cycle power generation systems. Its main function is to recover the high-temperature waste heat from the exhaust of gas turbines and convert it into steam to drive steam turbines for electricity generation, thereby enhancing overall energy utilization efficiency. Currently, the market exploration in this area is not very deep.

The core principle is as follows: the high-temperature flue gas (typically at a temperature of 400-600℃) discharged after the gas turbine does work enters the HRSG, where heat is transferred to the internal feedwater through the heating surface, heating and vaporizing the feedwater to produce saturated steam or superheated steam. This steam can drive steam turbines for electricity generation or be used for industrial heating, achieving a "gas power generation + waste heat utilization" tiered energy utilization model, which improves the efficiency of the combined cycle system by 15%-20% compared to single gas turbine power generation.

HRSG is usually used in conjunction with gas turbines and is a key device for enhancing the economic efficiency of gas power generation and reducing carbon emissions per unit of electricity generated, especially suited to the demand for efficient and stable power supply in data centers.

Current Market Situation of HRSG

According to industry information research, the current capacity gap for HRSG that can be adapted to supply the three major manufacturers of core heavy gas turbines in North America is about 50%. This capacity gap is expected to continue to widen, peaking in 2027 when the capacity from the three heavy gas turbine manufacturers is released. In terms of pricing, the price of gas turbine main units has more than doubled from the bottom, while the price increase of auxiliary HRSG units is relatively weak. It is expected that the price of auxiliary HRSG will significantly rise starting in 2026 as the supply-demand gap widens.

It is worth mentioning that many components in the AI chain are actually lacking. In addition to the well-known optical modules for overseas chains (such as the 1.6T from Xuchuang), according to our research, several core domestic suppliers in the chain are also in a state of full production and sales, which we will write about specifically later.

Barriers for HRSG Adaptation to North American Major Manufacturers

1. Technical Standards and Certification Barriers

The North American market has extremely stringent technical performance, safety standards, and energy efficiency requirements for HRSG equipment. Certification from the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) is a basic threshold for entering the North American market, and the equipment must meet strict standards in materials, design, manufacturing, and inspection. It is necessary to obtain strict production system certification from the main engine manufacturers; otherwise, shipments cannot be made.

2. Customization Technology Barriers North American manufacturers have very high adaptability requirements for HRSG, which need to be customized in design and manufacturing based on specific gas turbine models, operating conditions, environmental conditions, etc., making the technical difficulty significant.

3. Tariffs and Trade Policies

Tariff policies and trade agreements in North America may impact HRSG exports. The United States may impose high tariffs on imported products from specific countries or regions, increasing costs and market risks. Basic HRSG must have production capacity overseas to ensure smooth supply to North America.

Outlook on the Value of Domestic Core HRSG Export Enterprises

The outlook for the overseas expansion of domestic HRSG businesses appears relatively optimistic. Below is the public information from Boying Tehan:

The BYTH Vietnam Phase I project has planned 4 HRSG production lines, and the Vietnam Phase II project has planned 8 HRSG production lines, with each production line corresponding to 2 units of HRSG capacity, all adapted for 0.5GW heavy-duty gas turbines, sold to North American gas turbine manufacturers' contractors. The Vietnam Phase I project has already reached full production in November this year, and it is expected that the 4 lines of Phase II will reach full production in the first half of 2026, with the remaining 4 lines reaching full production in the second half of 2026, achieving a total of 12 production lines by the end of the year. Additionally, the company currently has a total site coverage that can accommodate up to 20 production lines, and further expansion is not ruled out.

Similarly, there is Xizi Clean Energy:

In terms of overseas project implementation, Xizi Clean Energy has created several landmark projects: the Pakistan Bika 2×9HA large combined cycle power plant HRSG project (the largest combined cycle power plant equipment in the world at that time) has successfully achieved commercial operation, establishing its position in the global high-end HRSG field; the Nigeria project of 12 units of 9E gas turbine waste heat boilers, as the largest natural gas self-supplied power station order in the world, has seen its products exported to over 50 countries and regions including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and South America.

HRSG Value Measurement and Analysis

Currently, the pricing model for HRSG in the industry is similar to that of gas turbines, both following a "cost + profit margin" model. According to industry research information, the average value of a single HRSG production line overseas is between 10-12 million USD per line (before price increase), and the current average net profit margin in the industry is around 20-30%. Of course, as the supply-demand gap for HRSG widens, the average net profit margin in the industry is expected to break through 30%, reaching a level of 30-40%, but this still requires ongoing observation.

Against the backdrop of electricity shortages in North America, the prosperity of the gas turbine industry chain is expected to continue to rise, and we will continue to track the relevant industry chain.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk