Sibanye Stillwater: 2025 A Turning Point

1: Introduction: Sibanye Stillwater. A Mining Giant in Transition

When you look at Sibanye Stillwater today, it's hard to believe how much the company has changed in just over a decade. What began in 2013 as a conventional South African gold miner has evolved into a global force in metals, not just gold, but also platinum, palladium, rhodium, and now even lithium and nickel. Headquartered in South Africa, Sibanye Stillwater has stretched its reach across five continents, growing into one of the world's biggest suppliers of platinum group metals (PGMs) while setting its sights firmly on the future of clean energy. The chart below displays the estimated revenue distribution for each type of metal produced in 2024.

Sibanye Stillwater has moved beyond the traditional model of mining for precious metals to focus on recycling, tailings reprocessing, and investments in battery materials. This evolution is evident in projects such as the Keliber lithium development in Finland and the nickel-processing plant currently under construction in Sandouville, France.

1.1: Investment thesis: Comparing SBSW and Palladium, Platinum ETFs.

Sibanye Stillwater is a promising option for those interested in PGMs, gold, or lithium. The company is diversified and generates solid cash flow, offering growth potential when commodity prices rise. However, mining comes with risks, including geopolitical factors, operational challenges, and market swings.

For investors with a higher risk tolerance who believe in long-term demand for PGMs and lithium, SBSW could be worth considering. It's important to watch how the company manages ESG commitments and integrates acquisitions.

Comparing SBSW to palladium (PALL) and platinum (PLTM) ETFs, SBSW offers higher return potential due to its operational leverage but also carries more risks. PALL and PLTM are safer, more straightforward options but with limited upside. The choice depends on your risk tolerance and investment strategy.

1.2: In 2024, the prices of platinum group metals (PGMs) were depressed, resulting in negative consequences for Sibanye. However, 2025 is changing that.

From 2024 until May 2025, Sibanye Stillwater faced significant challenges as the prices of platinum and palladium dropped below $1,000 per troy ounce. This decline severely impacted the company's revenue, particularly in its U.S. and South African operations. Consequently, Sibanye experienced major asset impairments worth hundreds of millions of dollars, indicating a reduced outlook for future profitability. As a result, the company was compelled to lower its production targets by nearly 200,000 ounces and implement restructuring measures, which included potential job losses. Ultimately, Sibanye reported a full-year loss, highlighting the vulnerability of mining companies to market volatility and emphasizing the pressing need for financial resilience and diversification.

Then there's the broader responsibility that comes with mining in a changing world: environmental impact, community relationships, and the pressure to show real progress on sustainability. Sibanye Stillwater has made strides here, but the expectations keep rising, and any misstep could carry real costs.

The company's journey is one of transformation rather than struggle. It is focused on learning, adapting, and taking risks to remain relevant in an increasingly eco-friendly economy. Sibanye Stillwater now faces the challenge of balancing growth with responsibility and traditional mining practices with the demand for future metals. How effectively the company is managing this balance will determine whether its transformation becomes a success story for the next generation of global mining.

Note: It is crucial to understand that Sibanye Stillwater is a complex and diverse business involved in a variety of mining operations across different commodities and geographical areas. Numerous political, environmental, and economic factors impact its operations, finances, and strategic choices. This makes it impossible to evaluate or comprehend the company in its entirety in a single article. Examining various elements over time, from different perspectives, and with an understanding of the larger industry context is necessary to gain a more comprehensive picture.

1.3: H1 2025 review of PGMs Production.

Sibanye Stillwater is a mining company that produces gold and PGM in South Africa, and the USA (Stillwater and Boulder mines). In South Africa and the United States, the Sibanye Stillwater mining company produces PGM (Stillwater and Boulder mines) and gold. The company's nickel production for Q1 2025 was 946 metric tons. Also, Sibanye Stillwater produced zinc in Australia after acquiring 100% of New Century Resources in March 2023. The company's first production in H1 2023 was 24K tons, and it produced 51.3K tons in H1 2025.

1.3.1: US PGM Production 2E PGM Oz And Recycling 3E PGM Oz ("USA")

Production was lower sequentially. U.S. Production 2E/PM was 141,224 2E oz, down from 238,139 2E oz last year, and Recycling delivered only 135,432 3E oz, down from 154,938 in 6/2024. Total production in the U.S. was 276,656 3E oz, down from 393,077 3E oz in 6/2024.

1.3.2: South African PGM Production: 4E PGM Oz And Gold Production (SA).

Gold production was 300,191 Au oz in H1 2025, down significantly from 344,109 Au oz in H1 2024, with an average price of $3,049 per Au oz, up from $2,069 in H1 2024. The 4E PGM production was 840,046 4E oz, down from 878,608 4E oz in H1 2024.The company indicated $1,400 per oz for the 4E PGM price basket, up significantly from $1,273 per 4E PGM in H1 2024. Additionally, Sibanye produced 1.16 million tons of chrome in H1 2025. Chrome price increased significantly to $338 in 2025.

1.3.3: Sibanye Stillwater indicates three different AISCs.

Sibanye's gold AISC shot up in H1 2025 mainly because production dropped, especially at Kloof, Driefontein, and Beatrix, while fixed costs stayed high. The company struggled with lower-grade ore and operational hiccups, spreading costs over fewer ounces. Even with higher by-product credits, these challenges pushed AISC noticeably higher.

2. My thoughts on Sibanye's H1 2025 results.

Analyzing Sibanye Stillwater's performance for the first half of 2025 left me with a sense of cautious optimism and growing curiosity about the company's trajectory in an environment of rapidly changing commodity prices. The results show a business that is stabilizing after years of volatility, despite the sudden and substantial increase in platinum group metal (PGM) prices, which could dramatically reshape its financial outlook. For a miner that has endured falling margins, impairments, and high leverage, this could mark the beginning of a powerful financial turnaround.

The company's H1 2025 results already hinted at renewed strength. Revenue reached approximately $3,073 million, reflecting improved production efficiency and modestly higher PGM prices. Despite this, Sibanye reported a basic net loss of ?$202 million, corresponding to an EPS of ?0.29, reflecting impairments and other accounting adjustments. Headline earnings were positive at around $292 million, demonstrating that the core business is beginning to generate sustainable profits.

The Free cash flow of $204 million underlines that operational recovery is translating into tangible liquidity. Meanwhile, cash reserves of $1,179 million and total debt of $2,380 million indicate that the balance sheet is under control, though leverage remains an area for careful management.

2.1: In this context, management's decision not to declare an interim dividend was understandable.

However, the company might probably restart paying dividends starting in H2 2025.With debt still high and the company focused on capital investment and restructuring, withholding a payout was a wise decision. I see this restraint as a sign of maturity. Sibanye's management seems committed to prioritizing long-term balance sheet health over short-term investor satisfaction, a shift that indicates financial discipline and strategic patience. However, with the prices of gold, platinum, and palladium reaching record highs, Sibanye could eventually pay a dividend in H2 2025. We will see.

What could dramatically accelerate this recovery is the sharp rise in PGM prices observed in mid-2025. With platinum and palladium now averaging above $1,500 per ounce, Sibanye's earnings potential for the second half of the year has changed significantly. Such a price level represents a near doubling from the previous year's averages and is unprecedented in the modern era. The implications for the company's income statement and balance sheet are immense.

2.2: What effects does the spike in the price of the precious metals have?

First, higher metal prices directly inflate revenue and operating margins. Fixed costs, such as labor, maintenance, and energy, remain relatively stable, which means most of the price increase flows straight to profit. A PGM price surge of this magnitude could lift Sibanye's full-year revenue by billions of dollars and transform headline earnings into record territory. Operating cash flow would expand sharply, and free cash flow could rise severalfold compared with the first half.

Second, the balance sheet would likely strengthen in multiple ways. Impairment risks would diminish as higher price assumptions improve asset valuations. The company's previously impaired mines could even see partial reversals of those charges, which would bolster equity and narrow accumulated losses. Net debt could fall quickly if excess cash flow is used to pay down borrowings, while liquidity ratios would improve. Within a few quarters, Sibanye could transition from a position of cautious recovery to one of balance sheet robustness.

Third, this PGM rally would reignite discussions about capital returns. After holding off on dividends in the first half, management might face pressure to reward shareholders if profitability continues to surge. However, the company would be wise to proceed conservatively, maintaining a focus on deleveraging and investment in sustainability before resuming payouts. A stronger financial foundation today could ensure more stable dividends in the future, even if commodity prices normalize.

2.3: H2 2025 could shine for Sibanye with strong PGM and gold prices.

Looking forward to the second half of 2025, the key question will be whether these extraordinary PGM prices are sustainable. If platinum and palladium remain near the $1,600 per ounce mark, Sibanye could deliver one of its strongest financial performances in history. But if the rally proves short-lived, management will need to ensure that temporary gains are not followed by renewed volatility. The company's ability to control costs, maintain operational consistency, and strategically hedge against price swings will determine how much of this upside is retained.

Beyond the numbers, what strikes me most is how Sibanye Stillwater's tone has changed. For years, its narrative was one of survival, cutting costs, restructuring, and absorbing impairments. Now, there is a sense of cautious renewal. The company's diversification across South Africa and the United States is paying off, policy incentives in critical minerals are boosting U.S. operations, and leadership seems grounded in realism rather than optimism alone.

H1 2025 is a true turning point, not just because of the improving financials, but because of the mindset it reflects. The management team appears more pragmatic, operations are more stable, and financial reporting is more transparent. The next six months will test whether this progress can be sustained in a less forgiving external environment. Yet for the first time in several reporting periods, Sibanye Stillwater's outlook inspires more confidence than concern. With higher PGM prices, improved cash generation, and careful balance sheet management, the company feels poised to transition from recovery to genuine financial strength.

2.4: Quarterly release on November 7, 2025

Sibanye Stillwater typically releases its financial results on a semi-annual basis, but it also provides quarterly updates to keep the market informed of its ongoing performance.

Sibanye Stillwater's third-quarter results for 2025, released on November 7, 2025, showcased strong performance amidst a challenging economic environment. The company maintained steady production across its key assets, including platinum, palladium, gold, and nickel, with a notable 4% increase in gold output compared to the previous quarter.

• 3Q25 production 4E South Africa was 493,863 ounces sold at $1,839 per ounce. (+4% year over year)
• 3Q25 Gold production was 175,929 ounces (including DRD gold) sold at $3,402 per ounce. (-2% year over year)
• 3Q25 production 2E US was 73,171 ounces (platinum and palladium) at $1,229 per ounce.
• 3Q25 Recycling 3E US was 82,503 ounces at $1,311 per ounces.

These results reflect the effectiveness of its operational improvements, which helped offset the impact of rising energy costs and inflationary pressures on profit margins. Cash flow generation remained robust, supporting the company's healthy balance sheet and its commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Overall, Sibanye Stillwater's performance in the third quarter of 2025 demonstrates solid operational execution and a balanced approach to growth and sustainability.

In Q3 2025, Sibanye updated its dividend policy but did not declare a specific payout. The company reiterated its commitment to returning 25% to 35% of normalized earnings to shareholders, while balancing these returns with operational investments and maintaining financial flexibility. Although no exact dividend for 3Q25 was announced, this guidance suggests that future payouts will continue to align with profitability and cash flow, consistent with previous periods.

3: Technical Analysis: Ascending Channel Pattern.

Note: The dividend adjustments have been made to the chart.

SBSW is currently trading within an ascending channel pattern, with resistance near $13.75 and support around $12.50. The RSI is at 60 and trending lower, suggesting a potential retest of the $12.60 level in the near term.

While ascending channels often signal short-term strength, they can also act as continuation patterns within broader downtrends, sometimes leading to a brief breakdown before a stronger recovery develops. Gold remains bullish at over $4,000 per troy ounce, and PGM prices are also holding strong at elevated levels.

From a trading standpoint, I'm using a last-in, first-out (LIFO) approach and plan to take profits in the $13.15 to $14 range, representing approximately 15% upside. There is still notable resistance around $13.3, which may be difficult to reach without a positive catalyst. On the other hand, my accumulation zone remains between $12.60 and $11.45, with possible lower support near $10.75 on severe setback.

The precious metals market, including gold, is exiting an exuberant phase and has consolidated a little. While momentum remains strong, a healthy correction may present an opportunity to reload before the next significant uptrend in PGM and gold-related stocks.

Note: The technical analysis chart should be updated regularly to maintain relevance.