<div id="readability-page-1">Money Markets Oracle Stock’s AI Gamble: Path To A 30% Rally  ByTrefis Team ,  Contributor.  Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Building a platform to do the job of 1 million analysts for  Great Speculations Follow Author Dec 04, 2025, 01:04pm EST Dec 04, 2025, 01:14pm EST Share Save Comment  Oracle Stock faces debt risks even as AI investments fuel growth ambitions. Getty Images Oracle (ORCL) has exhibited significant price increases historically. In 2025, it experienced a remarkable growth of more than 50% in just two months. Furthermore, there were seven occasions on which ORCL rose by over 30% in less than two months, especially notable in 2011 and 2024. If similar circumstances occur again, these robust short-term rallies could elevate Oracle stock to considerable new heights, providing substantial rewards for shareholders.  Having substantially increased for much of 2025 due to its bold shift toward AI and cloud technologies, Oracle is now facing a temporary decline from recent peaks. Nevertheless, despite this market fluctuation, the company's strategic expansion of cloud infrastructure and multi-billion-dollar investments from generative AI leaders like OpenAI could ignite a new wave of growth, fundamentally altering its valuation as its critical role in the AI era begins to fully unfold.  Factors That Could Elevate The Stock OCI &amp; AI Surge: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is anticipated to achieve over 70% growth in FY26 with a $455B AI backlog, featuring OpenAI, which is set to significantly increase its cloud market share by 2029.  Next-Gen Health EHR: The 2025 debut of Oracle Health's new AI-integrated, cloud-native EHR, different from Cerner, aims to bolster interoperability and facilitate meaningful re-entry into the healthcare market.  Multicloud Leadership: The “open-by-design” strategy of OCI with Azure and Google Cloud enables effortless data integration, reducing vendor lock-in and expediting the adoption of enterprise cloud and AI technologies.  How Robust Are The Financials Currently Revenue Growth: 9.7% LTM and 10.2% last 3-year average.  Cash Generation: Nearly -10.0% free cash flow margin and 31.6% operating margin LTM.  Valuation: Oracle stock trades at a P/E multiple of 49.7  metrics1 Trefis *LTM: Last Twelve Months | For further details, read Buy or Sell ORCL Stock .  MORE FOR YOU In light of the lack of recent revenue growth, minimal cash generation, and an undefined valuation measure, Oracle's stock fundamentally appears to be notably weaker. This underlying uncertainty inevitably brings to mind the associated investment risks, particularly concerning how the stock might behave during market declines.  Risk Measurement When assessing risk for Oracle, it's apparent that even robust companies can experience setbacks in market downturns. During the Dot-Com Bubble, ORCL experienced a decline of around 77%, which is substantial. The Global Financial Crisis saw it decrease by approximately 41%, while the Inflation Shock led to a similar 40% drop. Even minor sell-offs like the 2018 Correction and the Covid Pandemic resulted in declines close to 19% and 29%, respectively. While solid fundamentals are crucial, Oracle’s history indicates that it’s not exempt from severe losses when the market turns.  Still having doubts about ORCL stock? Think about a portfolio approach.  Diversified Portfolios Provide Greater Upside With Lesser Risk While stocks can rise and fall, bonds, commodities, and other assets can mitigate the volatility. A diversified portfolio helps maintain steadier returns and lessens single market risk.  The asset allocation strategy from Trefis’ Boston-based wealth management partner achieved positive returns during the 2008-09 timeframe when the S&amp;P dropped over 40%. Our partner’s current strategy incorporates Trefis’ High Quality Portfolio , which has a proven record of easily surpassing its benchmark that encompasses all three – the S&amp;P 500, S&amp;P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices.  Editorial Standards Reprints &amp; Permissions LOADING VIDEO PLAYER... FORBES’ FEATURED Video</div>

ORCL

<p>Oracle stock could rise by 30% due to AI investments and OpenAI deals, despite debt risks. Historically, Oracle has seen significant price increases, and its strategic expansion in AI and cloud technologies could drive future growth. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure is expected to grow over 70% in FY26, with a $455B AI backlog. However, Oracle faces risks from market downturns, highlighting the importance of diversified portfolios to mitigate volatility.</p>

Oracle Stock Could Jump 30% on AI Growth