Is It Too Late To Consider Sandisk After Its 440% AI Fueled Surge In 2025?

• If you are wondering whether Sandisk has already had its big run or if there is still value left on the table for new investors, you are in the right place.
• After an eye catching 439.9% year to date climb to around $194.38 a share, the stock has cooled off slightly, with a 9.6% pullback over the last week and performance that is roughly flat over the past 30 days.
• Recent headlines have focused on Sandisk's role in powering next generation data storage for AI infrastructure and cloud providers, highlighting both the company’s strategic partnerships and product roadmap in high performance flash solutions. At the same time, sector wide debates about chip demand cycles and inventory levels have injected some volatility into storage and semiconductor names generally.
• Despite the explosive share price move, Sandisk only scores 2/6 on our valuation checks, suggesting it screens as undervalued on just a couple of metrics, and fairly or fully valued on the rest. Next we will break down what different valuation methods say about that score, and later on explore a more nuanced way to think about Sandisk's true worth beyond the usual models.

Sandisk scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Sandisk Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth today by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and discounting those cash flows back to the present.

For Sandisk, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow stands at about $0.48 billion. Analysts and modelled estimates see this rising sharply, with projected Free Cash Flow reaching roughly $7.17 billion by 2035. Near term forecasts, such as $3.40 billion expected in 2028, are based on analyst coverage. Later years are extrapolated by Simply Wall St to reflect a gradual slowdown in growth as the business matures.

When these projected cash flows are discounted back using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of around $644.46 per share. Compared with the current share price near $194.38, this implies the stock is about 69.8% undervalued according to the DCF framework.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Sandisk is undervalued by 69.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 909 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Sandisk.

Approach 2: Sandisk Price vs Sales

For companies like Sandisk that are investing heavily for future growth, the Price to Sales ratio is a useful lens because it focuses on how much investors are paying for each dollar of current revenue, regardless of short term earnings volatility.

In general, higher growth and lower risk justify a richer multiple, while slower or more uncertain growth supports a lower, more conservative Price to Sales ratio. Sandisk currently trades at about 3.66x sales, which is well above the broader Tech industry average of around 1.50x, and also above its direct peer group, which averages roughly 2.81x.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework refines this comparison by estimating what a reasonable Price to Sales multiple should be, given Sandisk’s specific growth outlook, profitability profile, industry, market cap and risk factors. On this basis, Sandisk’s Fair Ratio comes out at about 3.23x, a level that is more tailored than simple peer or sector comparisons because it adjusts for company specific strengths and weaknesses.

Comparing the current 3.66x to the 3.23x Fair Ratio suggests Sandisk is trading somewhat ahead of its fundamentals on a sales basis, indicating mild overvaluation using this approach.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1442 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Sandisk Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework that lets you attach a clear story to your numbers, including your fair value estimate and assumptions for Sandisk’s future revenue, earnings and margins.

A Narrative connects three pieces together: what you believe about the business, how that belief translates into a financial forecast, and the fair value that falls out of those projections.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, Narratives are an easy, guided tool that help you turn your view of Sandisk into explicit forecasts that you can then compare with others.

Once you have a Narrative, you can quickly see whether your fair value sits above or below the current share price, helping you decide how Sandisk may fit into your own investment approach.

Narratives are also dynamic. They update automatically as new information, like earnings reports or major news, flows into the platform, so your fair value view can evolve in real time.

For example, one Sandisk Narrative on the Community page might assume rapid AI demand and a high fair value at the top of the range, while another more cautious Narrative could project slower growth and a fair value near the bottom of the range.

Do you think there's more to the story for Sandisk? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.