Assessing Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Valuation After Its Recent 7% One‑Month Share Price Rebound

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) has quietly pushed higher, with shares up around 7% over the past month even as the stock remains down double digits this year, creating an interesting reset point.

See our latest analysis for Keurig Dr Pepper.

That recent 1 month share price return of just over 7% looks more like a relief rally than a full trend change. The year to date share price return remains firmly negative and the 3 year total shareholder return is still in the red, so momentum is rebuilding but not yet convincing.

If KDP has you rethinking your watchlist, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With earnings still growing, a double digit year to date decline, and a notable gap to analyst targets, investors have to ask whether Keurig Dr Pepper is quietly undervalued or if the market already reflects its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 18.4% Undervalued

With Keurig Dr Pepper last closing at $28.33 against a narrative fair value near the mid $30s, the spread implies meaningful upside if forecasts land.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $37.333 for Keurig Dr Pepper based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $42.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $30.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue ramp, margin rebuild, and future earnings multiple are being baked into that upside case? The full narrative reveals the exact growth path and profitability mix that need to materialize for this valuation gap to close.

Result: Fair Value of $34.73 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained weakness in the U.S. coffee segment, along with potential margin pressure from new tariffs, could quickly undermine the optimistic upside narrative around KDP.

Find out about the key risks to this Keurig Dr Pepper narrative.

Another Angle on Valuation

On earnings, the picture is less forgiving. KDP trades at about 24.3 times earnings versus 17.6 times for the global beverage sector and 26.9 times for close peers, while our fair ratio sits higher at 27.8 times. Is this a calculated quality premium, or is valuation risk building?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Keurig Dr Pepper Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can build a custom view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Keurig Dr Pepper research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.