STAAR Surgical (STAA) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Rebound

STAAR Surgical's stock has risen 4% recently, sparking debate on its valuation. Despite a negative three-year return, the stock shows a year-to-date return of 9.4%. Analysts predict 18.2% annual revenue growth and margin improvement from -42.4% to 4.1% in three years. The stock is seen as 1.9% overvalued at $26.37, but a DCF model suggests a fair value of $37.11, indicating potential upside. Risks include China's recovery and market competition. Simply Wall St provides analysis but not financial advice.

STAAR Surgical (STAA) has quietly climbed about 4% over the past month, even as its three year return remains deeply negative, leaving investors debating whether the recent strength hints at a longer term reset.

See our latest analysis for STAAR Surgical.

That move sits against a year to date share price return of 9.4% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 4.5%, suggesting sentiment is stabilising even as the 3 year total shareholder return remains sharply negative.

If STAAR’s rebound has you reassessing the space, it could be worth seeing what else is setting up for a turn in healthcare and medtech via healthcare stocks.

With shares still trading below some estimates of intrinsic value but hovering just above the average analyst target, investors now face a key question: Is STAAR genuinely mispriced, or already reflecting a sharp rebound in growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 1.9% Overvalued

With STAAR Surgical last closing at $26.37 against a narrative fair value of $25.88, the prevailing view implies only modest downside from here while hinging on ambitious growth and margin recovery.

Analysts are assuming STAAR Surgical's revenue will grow by 18.2% annually over the next 3 years. Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from -42.4% today to 4.1% in 3 years time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a company losing money today earns a premium style multiple tomorrow? The narrative leans on rapid revenue compounding and a sharp profitability swing that could completely reframe STAAR’s earnings power. Want to see which forecasts justify paying up now for that turnaround later?

Result: Fair Value of $25.88 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if China’s recovery stalls or competitive pressure in key markets intensifies, STAAR’s lofty growth and margin assumptions could quickly look overstretched.

Find out about the key risks to this STAAR Surgical narrative.

Another View From Our DCF Model

While the narrative fair value suggests STAAR Surgical is 1.9% overvalued, our DCF model presents a different perspective. It indicates a fair value around $37.11, which is roughly 29% above the current $26.37 share price. If the cash flows materialize as projected, is the market underestimating the potential long term upside?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

STAA Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out STAAR Surgical for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 910 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own STAAR Surgical Narrative

If you see the setup differently, or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding STAAR Surgical.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.