Poll: RBA expected hold at 3.60% this month as outlook shifts to long pause through 2026
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the cash rate at 3.60% on December 9, according to a Reuters poll of 38 economists. The outlook has shifted, with most economists now anticipating rates to remain unchanged through 2026, influenced by stronger inflation, GDP growth, and a solid labor market. Interest-rate futures suggest a 70% chance of a hike by late 2026. Among major banks, Westpac expects cuts in 2026, while ANZ, CBA, and NAB foresee an extended hold.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is unanimously expected to keep the cash rate at 3.60% on 9 December according to the latest Reuters poll:
- all 38 economists forecasting no move;
- survey also marks a notable shift in the outlook: the median now expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026, compared with expectations for cuts as recently as last month.
The rethink follows a run of firmer data:
- inflation in the monthly CPI accelerated to 3.2%, back above the RBA’s 2–3% target band, suggesting policy may not be as restrictive as previously thought
- strong annual GDP growth
- solid labour market
Most economists now anticipate a prolonged pause. Of those with forecasts out to end-2026:
- 19 of 33 expect no change in the cash rate
- 10 still see cuts
- four expect at least one hike.
Interest-rate futures imply a 70%+ chance of a hike by late 2026, reflecting a shift in risk balance. Several analysts note that while the base case remains “hold,” persistent inflation or renewed labour-market tightening could push the RBA toward a hike.
Among the major 4 Australian banks, Westpac is the lone outlier expecting cuts in 2026; ANZ, CBA and NAB all expect an extended hold.
