Is Goldman’s Skepticism of Joby (JOBY) Highlighting a Deeper Question About Its Operator Model?

• In recent days, Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on Joby Aviation with a Sell rating, highlighting concerns around the company’s high valuation, regulatory hurdles and capital-intensive operator model despite its lead in eVTOL certification and growing international test operations.
• At the same time, Joby has been expanding real-world flight activity in the UAE and pursuing new test facilities in California, underscoring the tension between its operational progress and increasing analyst skepticism.
• We’ll now examine how this tension between Joby’s certification lead and Goldman’s concerns about its operator model shapes the investment narrative.

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What Is Joby Aviation's Investment Narrative?

To own Joby today, you have to believe that its first-mover edge in eVTOL certification and its early footholds in places like Dubai and Saudi Arabia can eventually justify an expensive, still pre-revenue story. The core near-term catalysts remain FAA type certification progress, successful piloted and pre-commercial flights in the Gulf, and the build-out of vertiports and manufacturing capacity in California and Ohio. Goldman’s new Sell rating, coming after a very large one-year share price gain and a secondary offering, does not change those operational milestones, but it does sharpen the focus on valuation, execution risk in Joby’s vertically integrated operator model, and the likelihood of further capital raises. The recent pullback suggests sentiment can swing quickly as investors reassess how much to pay for that vision.

However, investors should be aware of how capital intensity could shape future shareholder returns. Our valuation report unveils the possibility Joby Aviation's shares may be trading at a premium.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirteen Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates run from near zero to around US$12, underscoring how far apart views are. Set against Goldman's concerns about an expensive, capital-hungry operator model, that spread shows why it can help to weigh multiple viewpoints before forming your own stance on Joby.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Joby Aviation - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Joby Aviation Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Joby Aviation research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Joby Aviation research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Joby Aviation's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.