Costamare (NYSE:CMRE): Revisiting Valuation After a Strong Multi-Month Share Price Rally

Costamare (NYSE:CMRE) has quietly delivered a strong run, with the stock up about 26% over the past month and 35% in the past 3 months, despite declining annual revenue.

See our latest analysis for Costamare.

Zooming out, Costamare’s roughly 21% year to date share price return and powerful 1 year total shareholder return of about 73% suggest momentum is firmly building as investors reassess the company’s earnings resilience and asset values.

If Costamare’s recent move has you thinking about what else might be gathering steam in shipping and beyond, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

But with revenue contracting, analyst targets sitting below the current price, and valuation screens flagging limited value appeal, is Costamare still trading at a discount or is the market already baking in much of its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 33.3% Overvalued

Compared to the narrative fair value of $12.25, Costamare’s last close at $16.33 implies investors are paying up for its earnings resilience story.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $10.15 for Costamare based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you would need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $448.3 million, earnings will come to $285.2 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 6.1x, assuming you use a discount rate of 12.3%.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what holds this valuation together despite shrinking revenues? The narrative leans on margin expansion, resilient earnings, and a future multiple that challenges today’s market assumptions.

Result: Fair Value of $12.25 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if contracted revenues, fleet renewal and Neptune leasing keep earnings steadier than expected, today’s cautious narrative could prove too pessimistic.

Find out about the key risks to this Costamare narrative.

Another Angle on Value

On simple earnings multiples, the story looks different. Costamare trades on about 6.6 times earnings, cheaper than the wider US market at 18.7 times but richer than close peers at roughly 5.4 times. With a fair ratio near 9.3 times, is the market underpricing resilience or overpaying for a cyclical spike?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Costamare Narrative

If this perspective does not quite fit your view, or you would rather work from first principles, you can build a personalized narrative in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Costamare research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.