Cipher Mining (CIFR): Reassessing Valuation After Major AI Data Center Deals and Analyst Upgrade

Cipher Mining (CIFR) just flipped the script on its business model, locking in multi billion dollar AI and high performance computing data center deals with AWS and Fluidstack that reshape its long term revenue picture.

See our latest analysis for Cipher Mining.

The market has already been repositioning Cipher around this pivot, with a 1 year to date share price return above 300 percent and a 3 year total shareholder return above 2,300 percent, signaling powerful but volatile momentum.

If Cipher’s AI pivot has caught your attention and you want to see what else is shaping the digital infrastructure story, explore other high growth tech and AI names via high growth tech and AI stocks.

With the stock already up more than 2,300 percent in three years and analysts still seeing upside to their price targets, is Cipher Mining an underappreciated AI infrastructure play, or are markets already pricing in years of future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 27.2% Undervalued

Compared with Cipher Mining’s most popular fair value estimate of $27.25, the last close at $19.83 implies a sizable valuation gap that hangs on ambitious growth and margin assumptions.

The rapid expansion and optimization of production capacity, notably through adding Black Pearl Phase 1 and the upcoming Phase 2, along with fully funded next-generation miner deployments, positions Cipher to significantly increase its hash rate and Bitcoin output, directly supporting future top-line revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what justifies such a rich future earnings multiple? The narrative leans on aggressive revenue compounding, a sharp margin reset, and a premium valuation usually reserved for elite software names.

Result: Fair Value of $27.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this bullish setup still depends on robust Bitcoin pricing and flawless execution on AI leases, where delays or underutilised capacity could quickly pressure valuations.

Find out about the key risks to this Cipher Mining narrative.

Another View: Price Versus Fundamentals

On a revenue multiple basis, Cipher looks stretched, trading at a 37.9x price to sales ratio versus 5x for the US software industry, 21x for peers, and a fair ratio of 8.4x that the market could drift toward. This raises the risk of a sharp de rating if growth stumbles.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Cipher Mining Narrative

If this view does not fully line up with your own or you want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized thesis in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Cipher Mining research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.