BUZZ-JPM sees tough 2026 for paper firms
J.P. Morgan forecasts a challenging 2026 for the EMEA paper and packaging sector due to excess supply, affecting cartonboard and pulp prices. The brokerage downgrades SCA to "neutral" and maintains "underweight" ratings on Holmen and UPM. However, it sees potential in the U.S. corrugated market, reiterating "overweight" ratings on Smurfit WestRock and Packaging Corp of America.
J.P. Morgan forecasts a tough 2026 for the EMEA paper and packaging sector, citing looming excess supply that prompts a highly selective stock-picking approach
The brokerage expects global oversupply to pressure cartonboard prices, while EU containerboard and global pulp prices will likely hover around cost support levels for 2026
Reflecting this cautious view, JPM downgrades Swedish forest products firm SCA (SCAa.ST) to “neutral” from “overweight” due to declining wood fibre prices
The broker also keeps “underweight” ratings on Holmen (HOLMb.ST) and UPM (UPM.HE) , citing Holmen’s unfavourable product mix and a deteriorating post-2027 pulp outlook for UPM
However, the broker highlights the U.S. corrugated market as “a place to hide, and eventually thrive” thanks to disciplined supply and stable pricing prospects
Consequently, JPM reiterates its “overweight” ratings on US-exposed firms Smurfit WestRock (SWR.L) and Packaging Corp of America (PKG.N) as its top ideas for 2026
