An S&P 500 shakeup is due soon. These stocks could join the index.
Dow Jones2025.12.05 17:11
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Marvell Technology is newly eligible for the S&P 500, having met financial viability requirements. The index committee may announce changes soon, possibly adding Marvell or other candidates like Comfort Systems USA, Ciena, and Carvana. The committee's discretion and timing are uncertain, with potential updates expected before Dec. 22. Strategy's inclusion is less likely due to digital-asset concerns.
By Emily Bary
Marvell and Carvana are intriguing candidates, but the index committee could opt for some smaller names if it chooses to announce changes Friday afternoon on its quarterly cadence
Marvell just cleared the final hurdle required for a possible place in the S&P 500.
Is Marvell Technology about to join its larger rivals in the S&P 500?
The chip company is newly eligible for addition, having just met the requirement for cumulative GAAP profitability across its last four quarters, as well as in its most recent quarter. This "financial viability" threshold was the last thing holding Marvell (MRVL) back from being a candidate for index entry, according to Stephens analyst Melissa Roberts.
Of course, meeting all the requirements for eligibility doesn't guarantee a company a place in the benchmark index. The selection committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices gets to use discretion when determining which eligible companies will actually get a spot.
And in fact, while S&P Dow Jones Indices often announces scheduled changes to the S&P 500 SPX on the first Friday of the last month of the quarter, that's not a certainty, either. The committee sometimes declines to make any discretionary changes at the scheduled time, instead opting to swap in new members when specific circumstances arise, like the acquisition of a component by another component.
The reason Marvell is generating some buzz now, according to Roberts, is that it's the largest eligible company by market capitalization. The maker of application-specific integrated circuits and other chips was recently valued at nearly $84 billion.
See more: As Marvell's stock rises on an upbeat forecast, analysts still have these questions
Plus, the index committee "quickly added companies that met financial viability" in other recent instances across the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 MID and S&P Small Cap 600 SML, she noted.
That doesn't mean it will happen this time, though. It's worth keeping in mind that the fourth-quarter discretionary update is generally the quietest, she noted, coming off a busier third-quarter round of changes and with the expectation that deals will close around the start of the new year, opening up other opportunities for moves.
For that reason, the index committee may choose to go with "clean-up" changes instead of widening its universe, Roberts said. She was referring to the practice of looking for stocks that have gotten too big for the S&P indexes focused on small- and midcap companies and migrating them to the big leagues.
In that case, Roberts said the "most likely" options might be Comfort Systems USA (FIX), a $35 billion seller of mechanical and electrical services, and Ciena (CIEN), a $28 billion maker of optical technology. Both of those sit in the S&P MidCap 400 index.
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Beyond index migrators, another intriguing name to Roberts is Carvana (CVNA), which is second only to Marvell when looking at the market caps of eligible companies. Rival CarMax (KMX), with its $6 billion market value, recently got booted from the index, and Carvana could prove a more size-appropriate barometer of the used-car industry. Plus, fellow consumer-discretionary companies Mohwak Industries (MHK) and LKQ (LKQ) "are the smallest 500 names at highest removal risk," Roberts wrote.
While cryptocurrency holding company Strategy also meets various requirements for index eligibility, Roberts sees a lower likelihood that it will be added to the S&P 500. She recently cited "questions regarding index eligibility of digital-asset treasury companies" without meaningful operating businesses.
If the committee announces changes after Friday's close, the companies would be expected to join the index before the open on Dec. 22.
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-Emily Bary
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12-05-25 1211ET