<h2>Introduction</h2>
<p>This week (12.4-12.10), international crude oil prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a slight increase in the weekly average price compared to the previous week. The WTI average price was $59.07 per barrel, an increase of $0.20 per barrel, or 0.34%, from the previous week. Factors supporting oil prices during the week included the uncertainty of Russian oil supply and the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories. Factors putting pressure on oil prices included Iraq's rapid recovery of oil field production and the increase in U.S. crude oil output.</p>
<h2>Review of the Crude Oil Futures Market This Week</h2>
<p>This week (12.4-12.10), crude oil prices overall showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with mixed changes in the weekly average price.</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113027467.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113027467.jpg"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113035764.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113035764.jpg"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113302476.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113302476.png"/></p>
<p>In the early part of the week, the uncertainty of Russian oil supply supported oil prices. High-level talks between the U.S. and Russia did not reach a compromise solution to the Ukraine issue, and the market expects that U.S. and European sanctions against Russian oil exports cannot be lifted in the short term. Ukraine has also intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, claiming to have attacked ports in Russia's Krasnodar Krai and a refinery in Samara Oblast. The Jetmlyuk port mainly accommodates general cargo ships, liquid transport vessels, and bulk carriers, and a fire broke out after the port facilities were attacked. The refinery in Tolyatti, Samara Oblast, was also attacked. Additionally, sources revealed that due to severe storms and recent drone attacks disrupting loading operations, oil exports from Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in November were reduced by about 1 million tons compared to the original plan. The planned loading volume of Urals crude oil, Siberian Light crude oil, and KEBCO crude oil at Novorossiysk port in November was about 3.2 million tons, but actual exports only reached about 2.5 million tons.</p>
<p>On the other hand, in the later part of the week, international oil prices turned from rising to falling. Due to a leak in the export pipeline, Iraq temporarily shut down all oil production at the West Qurna 2 oil field operated by Lukoil, with about 460,000 barrels per day of crude oil production suspended. However, Iraq quickly restored production at the oil field and is expected to fully resume operations soon. Additionally, expectations of increased U.S. crude oil output also put pressure on oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for U.S. oil production in 2025 by 20,000 barrels, now expected to increase by 380,000 barrels year-on-year to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, setting a record high. U.S. oil production for 2026 was revised down by 50,000 barrels, now expected to decrease by 80,000 barrels year-on-year to 13.53 million barrels per day
The EIA stated that U.S. oil production in the Permian Basin is expected to increase by 260,000 barrels to 6.54 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching a record high. U.S. oil production averaged 13.85 million barrels per day in December, down from 13.86 million barrels per day in November.</p>
<h2>This Week's Crude Oil Spot Market Review</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113049784.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113049784.jpg"/></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113057860.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113057860.jpg"/></p>
<p>This week, the average international crude oil spot price fluctuated. In the Middle East oil market, Saudi Aramco set the official selling price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, for January to Asia at a premium of $0.60 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, down from a premium of $1.00 per barrel the previous month. This price is seen as a key indicator of Saudi Arabia's outlook on regional demand. Prices for other light crude oils were lowered by $0.20 per barrel, while heavy crude oil prices were reduced by $0.60 per barrel. Saudi Aramco also lowered the prices for all grades of crude oil sold to U.S. customers, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean region. Due to new sanctions imposed by the U.S. on two major Russian oil companies and the current high freight rates, Indian end-users are more inclined to purchase Middle Eastern crude oil, as it is more attractive compared to crude oil from other regions. Additionally, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) announced that the official selling price of Murban crude oil for January 2026 is $65.53 per barrel, down from the official price of $65.79 per barrel in December this year. Due to a loose supply-demand fundamental, there is no room for price increases for Iraqi Basrah Heavy and Basrah Light crude oil for January 2026 loading. Iraqi Kirkuk crude oil has begun supplying the Mediterranean region, weakening the demand for Basrah Heavy and Basrah Light crude oil from countries like Turkey and Egypt. In the Asia-Pacific crude oil spot market, India's Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited purchased 1-2 million barrels of Basrah Heavy crude oil for February delivery through a tender, with the seller being Vitol, and the specific purchase price is unknown. Furthermore, the spot price differential for Australian North West Shelf condensate for January loading has risen to a discount of $0.6-0.7 per barrel against spot Brent, due to strong demand. It is reported that the trading price for Australian North West Shelf condensate is around a discount of $0.65 per barrel against spot Brent.</p>
<h2>Supply and Demand Factors</h2>
<p>This week, on the supply side, with the implementation of new U.S. sanctions on Russia, some crude oil trade routes have begun to readjust, particularly affecting the import structure towards India, and large energy companies have been forced to accelerate asset restructuring and transfer processes. However, investors' reactions to these sanctions remain relatively low in sensitivity, viewing them more as short-term disturbances rather than structural factors. The market generally expects that Russia's fuel supplies will still enter the international market through covert channels, hence the price response to the sanctions is not strong
On the demand side, due to new sanctions imposed by the United States on Russian oil giants—Rosneft and Lukoil—and regulations prohibiting the sale of oil products refined from Russian crude oil to Europe, some Indian refiners have reduced their procurement of Russian oil, particularly the private company Reliance Industries. With limited sales options, Russia is seeking to increase exports to China. Although the market still anticipates that a U.S. interest rate cut or seasonal factors could boost demand, the long-term outlook clearly leans towards oversupply.</p>
<h2>U.S. Inventory Changes</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113315934.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113315934.png"/></p>
<p>Last week, refinery utilization rates continued to rise, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of the week ending December 5, crude oil inventories were 0.89% higher than the same period last year; 4% lower than the average of the past five years; gasoline inventories were 0.51% higher than the same period last year; 1% lower than the average of the past five years; distillate inventories were 3.75% lower than the same period last year; and 7% lower than the average of the past five years. Last week, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.589 million barrels per day, an increase of 609,000 barrels from the previous week, while refined oil daily imports averaged 182,400 barrels, an increase of 67,000 barrels from the previous week.</p>
<h2>Fund Positioning</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113326333.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.cmegroup.cn/uploadfile/2025/1211/20251211113326333.png"/></p>
<p>Speculators increased their net long positions in light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange by 64.8%. According to the latest statistics from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of the week ending October 28, the open interest in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 1,891,657 contracts, a decrease of 105,992 contracts. Large speculators held a net long position of 65,601 contracts in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, an increase of 25,801 contracts from the previous week. Among them, long positions totaled 271,722 contracts, a decrease of 955 contracts from the previous week; short positions totaled 206,121 contracts, a decrease of 26,756 contracts.</p>
<h2>Market Outlook for Next Week</h2>
<p>From a technical perspective, international crude oil prices continue to exhibit a low-level oscillation trend. The main factors supporting oil prices during the week included: first, the uncertainty of Russian oil supply; second, the decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories; and third, the tense geopolitical situation in Venezuela. The main factors putting pressure on oil prices during the week included: first, Iraq's rapid recovery of oil field production; second, the increase in U.S. refined oil inventories; and third, the expected record high U.S. crude oil production. As of the 10th, WTI closed at $58.46 per barrel, down $0.49 per barrel or -0.83%; for the week ending the 10th, the average WTI price was $59.07 per barrel, an increase of $0.20 per barrel or 0.34% from the previous week. From a technical standpoint, this indicates that oil prices may continue to oscillate at low levels
In terms of the economy, in the United States, economic activity has not changed much in recent weeks, but overall consumer spending has further declined, with high-end consumers being the exception. Survey reports indicate a slight decrease in employment and a moderate rise in prices. Due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history disrupting the collection and release of key economic data, unofficial reports on the conditions of businesses and consumers have attracted more attention. Federal Reserve officials will not have access to most of the labor market and inflation data for October and November until after the December interest rate meeting. The lack of official national-level data has intensified the divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding whether to cut interest rates in December.</p>
<p>This week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report that U.S. oil production is expected to set a larger record than previously anticipated this year, with expectations of a global supply surplus heating up. The EIA raised its forecast for U.S. oil production in 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day, now expected to increase by 380,000 barrels per day year-on-year, to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, setting a record high. In 2026, U.S. oil production was revised down by 50,000 barrels per day, now expected to decrease by 80,000 barrels per day year-on-year, to 13.53 million barrels per day. The EIA stated that oil production in the U.S. Permian Basin is expected to increase by 260,000 barrels per day to 6.54 million barrels per day, setting a record high. U.S. oil production in December is expected to average 13.85 million barrels per day, down from 13.86 million barrels per day in November. U.S. oil production in January 2026 is expected to average 13.71 million barrels per day.</p>
<p>Market survey results show that although OPEC agreed to increase crude oil production in November, OPEC's oil production in November still declined due to some member countries shutting down, further reducing its supply below its target. The survey indicated that OPEC's crude oil production in November was 28.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of 30,000 barrels per day from the previous month, with Nigeria and Iraq experiencing the largest daily production declines. Due to concerns about oversupply, OPEC has slowed its monthly production increase pace. Many member countries' crude oil production is nearing capacity limits, and some member countries need to cut production further to compensate for previous overproduction, which limits the effectiveness of further production increases.</p>
<p>Data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that China's crude oil imports in November were 50.891 million tons, with cumulative imports from January to November reaching 521.87 million tons, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year.</p>
<p>U.S. President Trump confirmed that the U.S. has seized a tanker near Venezuela. Earlier, two U.S. officials revealed that the U.S. Coast Guard led the operation to seize a tanker near the coast of Venezuela. Overseas agencies reported that the tanker, named Skipper, is a very large crude carrier registered in Guyana, which secretly loaded 1.1 million barrels of oil in mid-November. Sources indicated that the ship appeared to be heading to Cuba but has been anchored off the coast of Venezuela since loading its cargo
Jinlianchuang expects that next week (December 11-17), the crude oil market will continuously weigh the possibility of a ceasefire and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential impact of changes in Russian oil supply on the market. The Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut will provide a temporary boost to the market, but it still cannot offset the bearish effects brought by the weakness in the fundamentals on the oil market. Overall, international crude oil prices may rise first and then fall next week.</p>
<p>The information, opinions, and forecasts contained in this report reflect the author's personal judgment on the day the report was initially published, based on information that the author believes to be reliable and publicly available. Efforts are made to ensure, but not guarantee, the accuracy and completeness of this information, nor to guarantee that the opinions or statements in the report will not change. At different times, the author may issue reports that are inconsistent with the information, opinions, and speculations contained in this report without notice. The information or opinions expressed in this report do not constitute investment advice to any person, and the cases listed in the report are for illustrative reference only. The author is not responsible for any losses incurred by any person due to the use of the content of this report.</p>
<p>This report reflects the author's personal views and does not represent the research judgments of Jinlianchuang or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Jinlianchuang or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report. This report is transmitted only to specific clients, and the copyright belongs to Jinlianchuang. Without written permission from Jinlianchuang, no institution or individual may reproduce, copy, quote, or reprint it in any form.</p>
<p>The market has risks, and investment should be cautious</p>

<p>This week (12.4-12.10), international crude oil prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a slight increase in the weekly average price compared to the previous week. The WTI average price was $59.07 per barrel, an increase of $0.20 per barrel, or 0.34%, from the previous week. The uncertainty of Russian oil supply and the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories supported oil prices, while the rapid recovery of oil production in Iraq and the increase in U.S. crude oil output put pressure on oil prices</p>

Market news is mixed as international oil prices continue to fluctuate