On December 16, the weather was mostly clear and dry during the day. Although several major Wall Street firms were optimistic about U.S. stocks, the market initially rose and then fell the previous night. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 136 points on Monday, rebounding by as much as 221 points before turning negative, ultimately narrowing its loss to 41 points or 0.09%, closing at 48,416; the S&amp;P 500 fell 10 points or 0.16%, closing at 6,816; the Nasdaq also turned from gain to loss, dropping 137 points or 0.59%, closing at 23,057.
<h2>U.S. Stock Market Friend Oppenheimer Reiterates Buy</h2>
Among the heavyweight stocks, Tesla's share price closed up 3.6%, with CEO Elon Musk confirming that the company is testing a driverless taxi Robotaxi, with no one in the vehicle supervising. Nvidia's share price rose 0.9%. However, Oracle and Broadcom's share prices continued to weaken after announcing their earnings, falling 2.7% and 5.6% respectively the previous night. Netflix's share price fell 1.5%, as the co-CEO wrote to employees on Monday, hoping to dispel external concerns about the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, promising that Warner's films would still be released in theaters after the acquisition and that the studio would not be closed, emphasizing that the deal is aimed at enhancing growth and supporting employment.
U.S. stock market friend, Oppenheimer asset management strategist John Stoltzfus reiterated his buy recommendation for U.S. stocks, believing that the U.S. economy and market will lead the global economy to a new normal. He expects a broader U.S. stock market rally next year, as the economic fundamentals remain strong, supporting corporate revenue and profit growth, and that increased technology investment in the tech sector should help improve efficiency and productivity, enhancing its attractiveness. Citigroup also joined the ranks of those optimistic about U.S. stocks recording double-digit gains next year, with strategist Scott Chronert predicting that the S&amp;P 500 will rise to 7,700 points by the end of next year, representing nearly a 13% upside from last Friday's close, mainly benefiting from favorable earnings and expectations of loose monetary policy.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4.6 basis points to 4.149%, while the more interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield dropped by 3.8 basis points to 3.493%. The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.26% to 98.14, as expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan surged this week, with the yen rising 0.64% to 154.84 against the dollar. As previously mentioned, cryptocurrencies have entered a phase of volatility without upward movement; Bitcoin fell below the 88,500 support level and further breached the 86,000 mark, hitting a low of 85,380, with a decline of 5.1%.
<h2>After the Bank of Japan's Meeting, Hong Kong Stocks May Have a Chance to Rebound</h2>
Yesterday, Hong Kong stocks opened down 258 points, and the downward trend continued, dropping by as much as 367 points in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index hitting a low of 25,609; it closed down 347 points at 25,628, with a turnover of HKD 204.2 billion. Technology stocks were the main culprits of the decline, with Alibaba (9988) falling 3.5%, Tencent (700) down 2.1%; Meituan (3690) and JD.com (9618) both fell over 1%;
Baidu (9888) fell more than 5%. Overnight night futures and ADRs further softened, and this morning the black futures have dropped below the 25,600 level, indicating that the market is likely to open lower this morning.
As the year-end approaches, investor demand for buying is sluggish. Several central banks will hold meetings this week, and before that, funds tend to remain inactive. Currently, the technical trend is bearish, having once again fallen below all moving averages yesterday. After the market opens lower today, there is a chance to further seek support around 25,400-25,450. If this large trading volume area is lost, the market may even seek support again at the previous low of about 25,150-25,250, where there is expected to be decent support.
After the central bank's meeting this Sunday, there may be a rebound. In the short term, the market is still in a range-bound pattern, with the moving range remaining around 25,100-26,200. Unless there are particularly negative or positive news, it is difficult to break out of this range for now. Pay attention to the previous bottom of 25,100-25,200, which must not be lost. This area has been tested twice, and if this double bottom is lost, there is a chance of a downward breakout, testing the support at 24,800/24,500.
Gu Tianhou

ORCL

NVDA

On December 16th, Hong Kong stocks fluctuated slightly lower, with attention needed on the previous support level of 25,100 to 25,200 points. U.S. stocks initially rose before falling overnight, with the Dow Jones closing down 0.09%, the S&P 500 down 0.16%, and the Nasdaq down 0.59%. Oppenheimer reiterated its overweight rating on U.S. stocks, with Tesla's stock price rising 3.6% and Nvidia up 0.9%, while Oracle and Broadcom fell 2.7% and 5.6%, respectively. Netflix dropped 1.5%, with the co-CEO committing to not closing the studio after acquiring Warner. Citigroup expects the S&P 500 to rise to 7,700 points by the end of next year. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.149%, and the Japanese yen appreciated 0.64% against the U.S. dollar

- On December 16, U.S. stocks experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones initially rising before closing down 41 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also fell.  
- Tesla's stock rose 3.6% as CEO Elon Musk confirmed testing of a driverless taxi service, while Oracle and Broadcom shares declined after earnings reports.  
- Analysts from Oppenheimer and Citigroup remain optimistic about U.S. stocks in 2026, predicting significant gains driven by strong economic fundamentals and favorable monetary policy.

Hong Kong stocks fluctuated weakly, pay attention to the previous support level of 25,100 to 25,200, which must not be lost｜Gu Tianhou