Steel Dynamics Sees Seasonal Pressures Cutting Q4 Steel Profitability

Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD) on Wednesday disclosed guidance for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, projecting $1.65 to $1.69 per diluted share compared to the consensus of $2.15. This compares with $2.74 in the third-quarter 2025 and $1.36 in the fourth-quarter 2024. The company sees a decline in quarterly steel operations’ profitability mainly due to lower average selling prices and reduced volumes from seasonal demand and extended maintenance outages at flat-rolled steel mills, which cut production by an estimated 140,000–150,000 tons. Average indexed hot-rolled steel prices fell more than $70 per ton from July to October 2025, reducing sequential selling values due to lagged commercial pricing. Recently, however, flat-rolled steel prices have started to recover as import volumes decrease and underlying demand remains steady. Moreover, Steel Dynamics expects metals recycling and steel fabrication earnings to decline sequentially due to seasonal shipment drops, maintenance outages, and lower scrap prices. Despite this, a strong order backlog into the second quarter of 2026 and anticipated demand growth from infrastructure, onshoring, and easing interest rates are expected to support improved volumes in 2026. The company repurchased around $200 million (1%) of its common stock in the fourth quarter of 2025. Recent Earnings In October, Steel Dynamics reported third-quarter revenue of $4.83 billion, beating analyst estimates of $4.80 billion and earnings of $2.74 per share, beating estimates of $2.64 per share. The company expects to release fourth-quarter earnings on January 26, 2026. Technical Analysis Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD) is currently showing a strong technical setup, trading well above its key moving averages. The stock is positioned for potential further gains, with the 20-day SMA above the 50-day SMA, indicating bullish momentum. The RSI is at 59.57, which is neutral but suggests that the stock has room to run before hitting overbought territory. This level indicates that while the stock is not currently overbought, traders should watch for any signs of momentum building. Currently, MACD is below its signal line, indicating some bearish pressure in the short term. This could suggest that traders should be cautious and monitor for any shifts in momentum that might signal a change in trend. Key support is at $164.00, while resistance is at $173.00. If the stock approaches these levels, a break below support could signal a trend reversal, while a break above resistance might indicate a continuation of the current uptrend. The golden cross in June, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA, has set a positive tone for the longer-term trend. This crossover often signals a shift to a bullish phase, which traders should keep in mind as they assess future price action. Over the past 12 months, Steel Dynamics has delivered a solid 44.50% return, reflecting strong performance and investor confidence. This longer-term trend supports the notion that the stock has been in a sustained upward trajectory, making it a candidate for continued bullish sentiment. Currently, the stock is trading at 96.0% of its 52-week range, indicating it’s near its highs. STLD Price Action: Steel Dynamics shares were up 1.11% at $171.00 at the time of publication on Wednesday. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $174.31, according to Benzinga Pro data. Read Next: Nucor Faces Seasonal Headwinds In Q4, Yet Order Backlogs Signal 2026 Recovery Photo by saweang.w via Shutterstock