<div id="readability-page-1">Money Markets Is CCL Stock Likely To Beat Earnings?  ByTrefis Team ,  Contributor.  Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Building a platform to do the job of 1 million analysts for  Great Speculations Follow Author Dec 17, 2025, 12:31pm EST Dec 17, 2025, 12:39pm EST  LISBON, PORTUGAL - JUNE 03: Carnival Miracle, a 88,500 GT Spirit-class cruise ship operated by Carnival Cruise Line, sails the Tagus River after departure from the cruise terminal on June 03, 2025, in Lisbon, Portugal. (Photo by Horacio Villalobos#Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images) Corbis via Getty Images Carnival (NYSE:CCL) is scheduled to release its earnings on Thursday, December 18, 2025. The firm's current market capitalization stands at $37 billion. Over the past twelve months, the revenue reached $26 billion, and it operated profitably with $4.3 billion in operating profits and a net income of $2.6 billion. Although the stock's reaction after earnings will rely on how the results and forecast compare to investor expectations, an in-depth examination of historical results can be beneficial if you are a trader driven by events.  This can be achieved by either grasping the historical probabilities and positioning yourself before the earnings announcement or examining the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after earnings and entering a trade a day following the announcement.  View the earnings reaction history of all stocks  While individual stocks can surge or plummet, one aspect is crucial: remaining invested. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio assists in achieving that.  Carnival's Historical Chances Of Positive Returns After Earnings Here are some observations regarding one-day (1D) returns after earnings:  MORE FOR YOU In the last five years, there have been 19 earnings data points recorded, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. Overall, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 53% of the time.  However, this percentage drops to 50% when we analyze data for the last 3 years instead of 5.  The median of the 10 positive returns is 5.4%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -4.0%  Further data on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns after earnings has been summarized along with statistics in the table below.  forward returns Trefis Relationship Between 1D, 5D And 21D Historical Returns A relatively lower-risk approach (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to understand the correlation among short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify pairs that show the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader could position themselves “long” for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data derived from a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.  Historical returns Trefis On another note, if you're looking for better returns with smoother performance compared to an individual stock like CCL, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio , which consists of 30 stocks and boasts a history of significantly outperforming its benchmark, including all three indices: the S&amp;P 500, S&amp;P mid-cap, and Russell 2000. What accounts for this? As a whole, HQ Portfolio stocks have offered superior returns with reduced risk compared to the benchmark index; it provides a much more stable investment experience, as seen in the HQ Portfolio performance metrics .  Editorial Standards Reprints &amp; Permissions LOADING VIDEO PLAYER... FORBES’ FEATURED Video</div>

<p>Carnival (NYSE:CCL) faces a Q4 earnings test amid strong demand, rising costs, and debt pressures. Scheduled to release earnings on December 18, 2025, the company has a market cap of $37 billion and reported $26 billion in revenue with $2.6 billion net income over the past year. Historical data shows a 53% chance of positive one-day returns post-earnings over five years, dropping to 50% over three years. Investors may consider the Trefis High Quality Portfolio for more stable returns.</p>