Humanoid robots are accelerating their entry into real factories, beginning to play the role of the &#34;new generation of blue-collar workers.&#34;
The latest milestone event comes from battery giant CATL. According to official news from CATL, the world's first new energy power battery PACK production line that has achieved the large-scale implementation of humanoid embodied intelligent robots has officially commenced operation at its Zhongzhou base. This humanoid robot, named &#34;Xiao Mo,&#34; is currently able to accurately complete the final functional testing procedure with high voltage risks before the battery pack is offline.
The introduction of &#34;Xiao Mo&#34; is seen as a &#34;milestone breakthrough in the application of embodied intelligence in the field of intelligent manufacturing.&#34; According to official disclosures, its connection success rate remains stable at over 99%, the operational rhythm has reached the level of skilled workers, and the daily workload has achieved a threefold increase. This successful case provides crucial evidence for the transition of humanoid robots from the laboratory to real, complex industrial production lines.
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This progress is not an isolated case; it confirms the general trend analyzed in the industry. Guotai Junan Securities pointed out in a detailed research report that humanoid robots are in the preliminary stage of commercialization, and their application path follows a gradual strategy from simple to complex. The report believes that for the market and investors, the key at this stage is to observe their economic benefits and technological maturity in specific scenarios, rather than expecting them to immediately replace human labor comprehensively.
<h2>From Supplement to Connection: The Complementary Positioning of Humanoid Robots and Industrial Robots</h2>
The entry of humanoid robots into factories is not intended to directly replace highly automated industrial robots but aims to fill the gap between traditional automation equipment and human labor.
The report from Guotai Junan Securities clearly states, &#34;Humanoid robots are not meant to replace industrial robots; the goal is to replace human positions.&#34; The two will form complementary positioning: industrial robots will continue to focus on high-speed, high-load, and precise repetitive tasks at fixed positions, while humanoid robots will leverage their flexibility and mobility advantages.
The complementarity between the two is reflected in:
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Mobility: Industrial robots are fixed at workstations, while humanoid robots &#34;possess autonomous mobility capabilities, able to navigate narrow workstations and operate across regions.&#34;
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Environmental Adaptation: Industrial robots rely on &#34;structured scenarios,&#34; while humanoid robots can &#34;adapt to unstructured scenarios and self-adjust.&#34;
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Task Adaptation: Industrial robots are suitable for &#34;standardized, large-scale&#34; tasks, while humanoid robots are adaptable to &#34;flexible, small-batch, and composite tasks.&#34;
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The report believes that in the short term, the manufacturing industry will form a &#34;human decision-making + industrial robot precise execution + humanoid robot flexible connection&#34; model. Factories, due to their &#34;more structured working environment,&#34; become an ideal &#34;training ground&#34; for humanoid robots, which can then extend to households, commercial, and other scenarios once the technology matures
In industrial scenarios, the report clearly states that &#34;the wheeled form has advantages of stability, long endurance, and fast mobility, making it the preferred choice for industrial applications.&#34;
<h2>Implementation Roadmap: Prioritizing Handling and Quality Inspection, Basic Assembly on the Way</h2>
The report analyzes that in the initial phase of implementation, humanoid robots will start from &#34;short-chain tasks,&#34; continuously accumulating operational data to train and enhance their work capabilities.
The report believes that humanoid robots will &#34;prioritize handling and quality inspection tasks.&#34;
The reason is that these tasks &#34;generally have semi-flexible characteristics, high human involvement, and have not yet been fully replaced by traditional automation equipment,&#34; while also being &#34;short-chain and relatively independent processes,&#34; aligning with the current &#34;development status of embodied intelligence.&#34; For example, flexible loading and unloading in stamping workshops, and sorting and distribution of components in assembly workshops. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/41a36357-23eb-4b87-94ed-40bf4500b3e3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/41a36357-23eb-4b87-94ed-40bf4500b3e3.png"/>
As for &#34;basic assembly tasks, such as pre-tightening screws, pre-installing parts, installing logos, and connecting harnesses, humanoid robots are in the preliminary testing phase.&#34; <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/4337bf50-ae2c-4b11-ac15-790ce1e4da49.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/4337bf50-ae2c-4b11-ac15-790ce1e4da49.png"/>
It is worth noting that in industrial scenarios, the choice of robot form is equally important. The report believes that &#34;the wheeled form has advantages of stability, long endurance, and fast mobility, making it the preferred choice for industrial applications.&#34; Compared to bipedal forms, wheeled robots are more efficient and lower risk when moving on flat factory floors, better meeting the manufacturing industry's requirements for stability and continuous operation.
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<h2>Core Commercialization Challenges: ROI and Technical Bottlenecks</h2>
Although application scenarios are gradually becoming clearer, the large-scale commercialization of humanoid robots still faces two core obstacles: economic feasibility and technical bottlenecks. For any enterprise, the decision to introduce new equipment ultimately boils down to return on investment (ROI).
The report from Guotai Junan Securities has conducted calculations, pointing out that &#34;ROI determines the commercialization landing; to achieve the minimum goal of recouping costs in 2 years, the robot's price must be reduced to the level of 100,000 yuan, and efficiency must be improved to the level of human labor.&#34; The report states that currently, the price of humanoid robots used in industrial scenarios is mostly in the range of 300,000 to 500,000 yuan, which presents a huge gap from the target price of 160,000 yuan (assuming annual labor cost of 80,000 yuan, with a 2-year payback period). This means that the industry chain must achieve significant cost reductions through technological iteration, large-scale production, and supply chain optimization.
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On the technical level, two major bottlenecks are particularly prominent.
First, &#34;the development of embodied brains is still lagging, with insufficient ability to handle complex long-chain tasks.&#34; Current humanoid robots still struggle to complete complex processes that require multi-step coordination without human intervention, and their task generalization and autonomous decision-making capabilities are still in the early stages.
Second, &#34;the precision operation capability needs to be improved, and the durability, flexibility, and force control of dexterous hands are another major hurdle from demonstration to practicality.&#34; In tasks that require precise hand-eye coordination, such as assembling small parts and connecting cables, there is still a significant gap between the capabilities of robots and human hands.
In addition, the report mentions an important direction: &#34;Some developed countries are facing labor shortages and high labor costs, which means that the commercialization loop of humanoid robots is expected to be established first, and going overseas may become an important direction.&#34; According to the report, the average hourly wage for warehouse workers in the United States will be $23.99 by 2025, while the estimated operating cost of Agility Robotics' Digit robot is only $10-12 per hour, showing significant economic benefits.
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<h2>$48 Billion Market Outlook: Collaboration Between Automakers and Robotics Companies</h2>
Despite numerous challenges, the prospects for humanoid robots in the industrial sector are still widely optimistic, driven primarily by the need to address global labor shortages and replace dangerous environment operations. The report predicts that by 2030, there will be a labor shortage of nearly 8 million in the global manufacturing sector.
Based on this, Guotai Junan Securities has made a quantitative forecast of the market space: &#34;It is expected that by 2035, the total demand for humanoid robots in China's industrial scenarios, including automotive manufacturing, electronics manufacturing, and logistics warehousing, will reach 484,000 units, with a market space of 48.36 billion yuan.&#34; This forecast paints a picture of tremendous growth potential for investors.
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In this transformation, automakers play a crucial role. The report emphasizes, &#34;Companies like Tesla and XPeng have dual advantages in technology and scenarios, promoting the implementation of humanoid robots in industrial settings.&#34;
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Automakers like Tesla and XPeng can extend their technological accumulation and supply chain advantages in the smart automotive field to humanoid robots and can be the first to test and validate them on their own automotive production lines.
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These companies can not only reuse the AI, perception, and control technologies accumulated in the smart automotive field for robots but also provide the most valuable application scenarios and training data directly in their own factories.
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Tesla Optimus: Has been testing tasks such as sorting batteries in the factory and plans to establish a larger-scale third-generation humanoid robot production line by 2026.
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XPeng IRON: Has entered its own factory to participate in automotive production training and plans to achieve large-scale production of advanced humanoid robots by the end of 2026
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In addition, the cooperation between robot manufacturers and automotive companies is becoming increasingly close. For example, the humanoid robot from the American company Figure has undergone extensive trials at BMW Group's factories. According to Figure founder Brett Adcock, its Figure 02 robot has participated in the production of 30,000 cars at BMW factories over the past six months, accumulating more than 1,250 hours of operation. The explorations of these pioneers are accumulating valuable experience for the commercialization path of the entire humanoid robot industry.
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300750

Humanoid robots are accelerating into factories. Cathay Securities pointed out that handling and quality inspection are their preferred paths for commercialization. The core bottleneck lies in the return on investment; to achieve a payback period of 2 years, the price of robots needs to be reduced to the level of 100,000 yuan. Although the "brain" and "dexterous hands" remain technical bottlenecks, with the large-scale application by CATL and the entry of automotive companies, the market space for industrial scenarios in China is expected to exceed 48 billion yuan by 2035

Wallstreetcn

CATL

CATL samples humanoid robots transforming into "blue-collar" workers on the assembly line, with a market space potentially exceeding 48 billion by 2035