MSCI exclusion to cause $15B asset sales by crypto treasury firms

Crypto-focused treasury companies could face significant selling pressure if Morgan Stanley Capital International Index (MSCI) proceeds with a proposal to exclude them from its major equity indexes, a move that critics warn could trigger billions of dollars in forced asset sales and further weigh on already weakening digital-asset markets.Campaigners estimate that as much as $15 billion in crypto could be sold if the index provider implements the change, underscoring the high stakes of an ongoing consultation that has drawn growing opposition from industry participants.Billions in potential outflowsBitcoinForCorporations, a group campaigning against the proposal, said crypto treasury companies could face between $10 billion and $15 billion in outflows if they are removed from MSCI indexes. The estimate is based on a “verified preliminary list” of 39 companies with a combined float-adjusted market capitalization of about $113 billion.According to the group, JPMorgan analysis suggests that Strategy (previously known as Microstrategy), the Bitcoin treasury firm associated with Michael Saylor, could see $2.8 billion in outflows alone. Strategy accounts for roughly 74.5% of the total impacted float-adjusted market capitalization, making it the most exposed company if the policy change goes ahead.Analysts cited by the campaign calculated that potential outflows across all affected companies could total about $11.6 billion. Such selling would likely add to downward pressure on crypto markets, which have already been trending lower for nearly three months.The campaign against the proposal has gained traction, with BitcoinForCorporations’ petition letter attracting 1,268 signatures at the time of writing.MSCI’s consultation and industry concernsMSCI said in October that it was consulting investors on whether to exclude so-called crypto treasury companies — firms that hold the majority of their balance sheet in cryptocurrencies — from its indexes. MSCI benchmarks are widely used by passive investment funds, meaning changes to index inclusion can directly affect capital flows into or out of affected stocks.Critics argue that MSCI’s proposed balance sheet-based approach is flawed. BitcoinForCorporations said judging companies on the proportion of crypto on their balance sheet does not accurately reflect their underlying business operations.“A single balance sheet metric cannot reflect whether a company is an operating business,” the group said, warning that firms could be excluded even if their customers, revenue, and core operations remain unchanged. The group has urged MSCI to withdraw the proposal and continue classifying companies based on business models, financial performance, and operational characteristics.Growing pushback ahead of decisionOpposition to the proposal has widened in recent weeks. On December 5, Nasdaq-listed Strive called on MSCI to “let the market decide” whether passive investors want exposure to Bitcoin-holding companies.Strategy also weighed in, stating in a letter that the proposed rule change would introduce a bias against crypto as an asset class, rather than allowing MSCI to function as a neutral index provider.MSCI said its final conclusions will be announced by January 15, with any approved changes slated for inclusion in the February 2026 index review. Until then, uncertainty over the decision is likely to remain a source of concern for both equity and crypto investors, particularly given the potential scale of forced selling if the exclusions move forward.The post MSCI exclusion to cause $15B asset sales by crypto treasury firms appeared first on Invezz