What's next for airfares after ticket prices fell in November

By Charles Passy The government shutdown played a big part in why cheaper fares were abundant this fall. Here's what to expect when booking your next flight. Travelers benefitted from a 5.4% decline in airfare prices during November, per U.S. government data. The latest monthly U.S. government data, released Thursday, showed price increases in just about every conceivable consumer category and an overall inflation rate of 2.7%. But there was one big exception: Airline fares declined by 5.4% in November 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. So, does that mean it's actually getting cheaper to fly? Not necessarily, according to aviation-industry experts - though there have been encouraging signs for bargain seekers throughout the past year. The sizable November decline could be attributed to a variety of factors, experts note, but one stands out: the U.S. federal government shutdown. With travelers fearing the possibility of flight cancellations, delays and other disruptions, many held off on booking tickets. And with less demand, airlines naturally lowered prices - despite their initial hopes for a strong month, especially because of the Thanksgiving holiday. Delta Air Lines (DAL), for example, said that it lost $200 million because of the shutdown. But November wasn't the only time in which travelers might have found a cheap (or at least cheaper) flight. Weekly figures from OAG, a global aviation-data provider, show that prices in 2025 often dipped below 2024 levels throughout the year - and sometimes even below 2022 and 2023 levels. For example, in mid-June, the average lowest available price for a flight was $407 in 2025, which was below the price during that same period in 2024 ($433), 2023 ($498) and 2022 ($487), according to OAG. Some experts say the air-travel industry is experiencing something of a natural decline in demand - and in turn, pricing - following the "revenge travel" boom of the postpandemic period. That's when travel surged as people were eager to get out and about again, and airlines could boost fares as a result. But Melius Research analyst Conor Cunningham says other issues have lessened demand this year. He points to weaker consumer confidence tied to the tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration. Additionally, the January midair collision between an American Airlines (AAL) plane and U.S. Army helicopter over the Potomac River in Washington, D.C., may have also scared away some would-be passengers, Cunningham notes. "Airlines went materially off-plan in the early part of the year," he said. Cunningham isn't so sure prices will stay lower in the coming months, however. He says that if government tax incentives put more money in consumers' wallets, that could spur more people to fly - with that demand potentially leading to higher prices. As it is, OAG reports that current prices for domestic flights are higher than they were at this time in 2024, by almost 20%. Obviously, there are no more shutdown woes affecting the industry. Even when prices are lower, consumers may not realize the benefit, says Michael Taylor, a senior managing director with J.D. Power, the consumer-insights company. That's because surveys that track pricing for the base or lowest fare don't take into account the fact that travelers often pay for perks and extras beyond that bottom fare. "Airlines monetize everything from extra baggage to getting a bag of peanuts," Taylor said. Either way, Tiffany Funk, co-founder of Point.me, a flight-booking tool, doesn't think airline pricing will be so competitive in 2026. Global demand for travel is fairly strong going into the new year, she notes, and that lessens the need to offer deals. "We're not going to be in a situation with bargain-basement fares anytime soon," Funk said. -Charles Passy This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. (END) Dow Jones Newswires 12-20-25 1317ET