NICE (TASE:NICE): Rethinking Valuation After a 45% Share Price Slide and Ongoing Earnings Growth

NICE (TASE:NICE) has quietly turned into a contrarian story, with the share price down roughly 45% over the past year even as revenue and net income continue to grow at a steady clip. See our latest analysis for NICE. That backdrop helps explain why the recent 1 month share price return of about 8 percent looks more like a short term rebound within a longer stretch of weak total shareholder returns, rather than a full shift in sentiment just yet. If NICE has you rethinking where growth and valuation might realign next, this could be a good moment to explore high growth tech and AI stocks as potential alternatives. With fundamentals still growing and the share price languishing well below analyst targets, is NICE now a mispriced AI and cloud CX leader in plain sight, or is the market already discounting its future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 52.6% Undervalued With NICE last closing at ₪355.3 against a narrative fair value near ₪750, the gap hinges on sustained earnings expansion and richer future profitability assumptions. The rapid growth in demand for AI-driven customer experience solutions, manifested by 42% year over year growth in AI and self-service ARR and the upcoming integration of Cognigy's conversational AI capabilities, provides visibility into sustained increases in high margin, recurring cloud revenue and expanded ARPU. Read the complete narrative. Want to see what powers that aggressive upside case? It hinges on compounding subscription growth, rising margins, and a future earnings multiple that assumes enduring leadership. Curious which specific forecasts turn that gap into a seemingly logical fair value, instead of wishful thinking? Read on to see the assumptions doing the heavy lifting. Result: Fair Value of ₪750.02 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, persistent margin pressure from heavy cloud investment and elevated churn in acquired customers could slow earnings progress and challenge that optimistic valuation path. Find out about the key risks to this NICE narrative. Build Your Own NICE Narrative If you see the story differently or want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized thesis in minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your NICE research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Ready for more high conviction ideas? Before you move on, consider locking in your next watchlist candidates with fresh, data driven shortlists that many investors may not review until later. Identify early momentum by targeting these 3627 penny stocks with strong financials that already support their small market caps with existing revenue strength and improving balance sheets. Explore the AI infrastructure theme by focusing on these 24 AI penny stocks involved in model training, inference workloads, and automation-related demand. Review potential value opportunities by screening for these 913 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where cash flows and fundamentals appear stronger than current market expectations. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and DisasterThe next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.Get the investor briefing before the next round of contractsSponsored On Behalf of CiTech