Galaxy Digital Research Director: Institutional Access and Monetary Easing Could Drive Bitcoin to $250,000 Within Two Years

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, wrote that the continued expansion of institutional access is resonating with gradually easing monetary policy and the market's urgent demand for non-dollar hedging assets. He believes that within the next two years, Bitcoin is likely to become as widely accepted as an asset to hedge against currency devaluation as gold, and he predicts Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. While the trajectory of 2026 is too volatile to predict, it is still possible for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high in 2026. Currently, options market pricing indicates that by the end of June 2026, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 or rising to $130,000 is almost equal; and by the end of 2026, the probability of falling to $50,000 or rising to $250,000 is equally close. This wide price range reflects the high degree of uncertainty in the market regarding the short- to medium-term outlook. Thorn also pointed out that, looking at the full year's performance, Bitcoin's long-term volatility has structurally decreased, partly due to larger-scale covered selling and the introduction of Bitcoin yield-generating strategies. It's worth noting that in the current volatility smile curve for BTC, put options are priced higher in terms of volatility than call options, whereas this wasn't the case six months ago. This "maturation" trend is likely to continue. Regardless of whether Bitcoin continues to pull back and approaches its 200-week moving average, the maturity of the asset class and institutional adoption are steadily increasing. 2026 may be a relatively uneventful year for Bitcoin, and whether it ultimately closes at $70,000 or $150,000, our bullish outlook on its long-term prospects will only grow stronger.