'Don't Be a Fool,' Says Top Investor About BigBear (BBAI) Stock

They say timing is everything – and for a while, BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) seemed to have it nailed. The company has ridden the AI wave with near-perfect timing, turning surging enthusiasm around artificial intelligence into huge gains. Over the past three years, BBAI shares have soared by 746%, marking it as one of the more explosive names in the AI trade.Claim 50% Off TipRanks Premium and Invest with Confidence Unlock hedge-fund level data and powerful investing tools designed to help you make smarter, sharper decisions Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis so your portfolio is always positioned for maximum potential Yet, 2025 has been anything but a straight line. The year opened on a high note, driven largely by a leadership shake-up that saw former Trump administration insider Kevin McAleenan, who served as Acting Secretary of Homeland Security during the president's first term, step in as CEO in mid-January. Investors quickly bet that McAleenan would be well-positioned to help secure government contracts for the company, which bills itself as a provider of "mission-ready AI solutions for critical operations." The story since then has been one of cautious recovery rather than redemption. Shares have slowly clawed back some lost ground, leaving BBAI up 41% year-to-date. But not everyone is buying into the rebound. Top investor Chris Neiger argues that the recent strength reflects faulty reasoning, and he remains firmly bearish on BigBear's longer-term outlook. "Unfortunately, I think investors have been caught up in a bit of a flurry of excitement for BigBear.ai that's not necessarily warranted, given the company's falling sales and tumbling margins," explains the 5-star investor, who is among the very top 1% of stock pros covered by TipRanks. The investor also isn't impressed by the company's positive GAAP EPS earnings in Q3, calling this a "temporary" bump due to a non-cash alteration in derivative liabilities. Moreover, the company's gross margin fell to 22.4% in Q3 2025, an erosion from the 25.9% in Q3 2024. "BigBear.ai is a growth company, minus the growth," Neiger said sarcastically. Making matters worse, BBAI is trading at a premium. The investor cites the company's Price-to-Sales multiple of ~14x, which is significantly higher than the tech sector average of 9x. "Be cautious of investing in AI companies that sound promising but lack the financial fundamentals to support their rapidly rising share prices," sums up Neiger. (To view Neiger's track record, click here) Meanwhile, SOUN has slipped under most analysts' radar. The stock's Moderate Buy consensus is built on just two recent ratings – one Buy and one Hold. Its 12-month average price target of $6.50 suggests a fairly muted outlook, implying only about a 4% move in the year ahead. (See BBAI stock forecast)